Sandbagging just not USA style
DEAUVILLE, France – A loss at the World Cup isn’t always what it seems.
The Americans are already through to the next round, lessening some of the importance of Thursday’s final Group F game against Sweden. Yes, there’s still top of the group to be determined, to say nothing of that not-so-insignificant grudge they’ve been carrying around for almost three years now after Sweden handed them their earliest exit from a major international tournament.
But truth be told, the U.S. might be better off sandbagging it against Sweden. A loss now might improve their chances of winning the tournament.
“We want to win every game,” U.S. coach Jill Ellis said. “That’s where we’re at, and that’s what we want to do.”
Ellis’ response hardly comes as a surprise. One of the U.S. women’s best attributes has always been their determination, and they have shown so far this tournament that they have no interest in dialing it back or toning it down. But is it the best play?
Which road to take is more than an existential question in the World Cup. Where you finish in the group determines your path through the knockout rounds, and sometimes the draw does the winners no favors.
The winners of Groups A and D in this World Cup are on the same side of the draw as the Group F winner. That means, should the U.S. finish atop Group F, it faces the prospect of having to play France (quarterfinals) and England (semifinals) just to get to the final.
France is ranked No. 4 in the world but has been arguably the strongest team in the tournament after the Americans, and it also can count on a sizable home-crowd advantage. England, ranked No. 3, finished third four years ago.
Should the Americans lose to Sweden, however, it would likely mean playing Germany in the quarterfinals. Yes, Germany is ranked No. 2 in the world, a two-time World Cup winner and the reigning Olympic champion.
But it has looked vulnerable, by far the weakest of the top teams.
“You can’t overthink this,” Ellis insisted. “Deciding to come second or manipulate a score, I just think that can be dangerous.”
It might not end up mattering, anyway.
There was no shortage of angst when Belgium and England faced off in the men’s World Cup last summer with the top spot in their group on the line, the fear being the winner was putting itself on a collision course with either Brazil or Mexico in the quarterfinals.
“We want to perform well but the priority is not to win,” Belgium manager Roberto Martinez acknowledged before the game.
Belgium beat England to win the group and, sure enough, got Brazil in the quarterfinals. But the Red Devils beat Brazil, ensuring they would either match or better their previous best finish, fourth, in a World Cup.
Belgium lost to eventual winner France in the semifinals while England lost to Croatia. The Red Devils then beat England, again, in the third-place game.
And in the 2011 Women’s World Cup, the United States finished second to Sweden in group play, which meant playing Brazil rather than Australia in the quarterfinals. The Americans won — in epic fashion, no less — and would go on to reach the finals.
“Whether you play team X in group play, whether you play in the semis or finals or quarters or 16s, you’ve got to play everybody — and you’ve got to be prepared to play everybody to win this thing,” Ellis said.
“I don’t think there’s a plotting out a dream path or something like that. The draw is what it is, and we navigate whoever’s in front of us.”
Besides, unlike most of the rest of us, who would need little encouragement to take it easy at work, telling the Americans to play to lose would likely spark a rebellion.
After that 13-0 rout of Thailand in the opener, Ellis made seven changes to her starting lineup for Sunday’s game against Chile. The Americans still won 3-0, and would have scored six or seven more had Chilean goalkeeper Christiane Endler not been downright spectacular, a performance that will be hard for any goalkeeper to top the rest of the tournament.
She stopped 14 shots just in the second half, repeatedly stymieing Christen Press and making a kick save on a point-blank shot from Lindsey Horan.
So to ask the Americans to not go full throttle against Sweden, yeah, that probably won’t happen.
“I struggle to tell my team not to tackle each other in training the day before” a game, Ellis said.
The U.S. women have been called a lot of things already at this World Cup. Slackers won’t be one of them.