Campaign contrast: Trump goes much bigger for 2020
Election effort is more organized, experienced and well-funded
WASHINGTON – When President Donald Trump decided to hold a rally in Grand Rapids this year, Michigan Republicans swung into action.
State party leaders called party volunteers, who recruited friends and neighbors to turn out for the event in March, a symbolic return to the site of Trump’s final rally of 2016.
“It feels like a well-run ship,” said Chris Stewart, chairman of the Eaton County Republican Party, who was part of the effort. “It’s very organized.”
Trump’s primary campaign account has accepted more than $100 million since early 2017. President Obama collected $11 million by early 2011.
Four years ago, when Trump strolled down an escalator to the basement food court of his namesake building in New York to announce his unlikely presidential run, he led a shoestring campaign staffed with political novices, many of whom were members of his family or worked for his global real estate empire.
When Trump formally kicked off his reelection Tuesday at a basketball arena in Orlando, Florida, he was backed by a high-tech campaign, staffed with veteran political hands and more money than any other incumbent candidate 16 months before an election. That organization may be one of his biggest assets as he faces a tough political environment.
“Those are the benefits of being an incumbent president and having 90% support among Republicans,” said Jason Miller, a senior aide on Trump’s 2016 campaign.
Trump by the numbers
Trump launched his reelection effort on the same day he became president, filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission. The early moves, along with frequent fundraisers and rallies, resulted in a war chest that eclipses that of his predecessors.
The president’s primary campaign account has accepted more than $100 million from donors and other political entities since early 2017. That number vastly exceeds the roughly $11 million President Barack Obama collected by early 2011.
A bigger and better organization will help Trump boost his message and get an early start on the same project that helped win him the presidency in 2016: identifying likely Trump voters in key states and getting them out to the polls when the time comes.
“This time, there’s obviously a much better infrastructure, a much better starting point,” Miller said. “A much bigger campaign has a better chance to amplify the message.”
Friday, Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee will kick off an early component of what political operatives call the ground game – the block-by-block, house-by-house process of identifying potential voters.
“Congratulations to the president for having a functioning campaign this time.”
Adrienne Watson, Democratic National Committee
Organizers said the initial effort will involve nationwide training sessions for more than 3,000 people in the art of getting people out to vote. The campaign said it has trained 31,000 “fellows” as part of the “Trump Victory Leadership Initiative.” During the 2016 cycle, Republican officials said they trained only 6,000 people.
“The enthusiasm for President Trump and Republicans is like nothing we have ever seen,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement to USA TODAY. “Our teams throughout the country are building our infrastructure to meet the demands of the tens of thousands of great Americans who want to be a part of this movement.”
Dems: Welcome to politics
Democrats counter that any incumbent president has major advantages in an election, but they argue that Trump’s organization and money will take him only so far. Trump’s professional campaign is noteworthy, his Democratic critics say, mostly because his 2016 effort was based more on instinct and driving a news cycle than on planning or strategy.
“Congratulations to the president for having a functioning campaign this time,” quipped Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the Democratic National Committee.
Democrats take the president’s campaign seriously, but they say the messenger and the message are flawed. They contend that will help Democrats turn out the number of voters necessary to prevail in November 2020, just as the party saw large increases in turnout during the 2018 midterm election.
Democratic consultant Jesse Ferguson said Trump may have a good organization, but the candidate himself “starts the campaign out with a record level of unpopularity.” Even a good ground game can bring only so many people to the polls, and too many people think Trump has geared his presidency to wealthy voters and corporate interests, Ferguson said.
“In 2015, he descended on a goldplated escalator as an agent of change,” Ferguson said. “Now he’s got a goldplated campaign, but he owns everything that is wrong in Washington.”
A Quinnipiac University National Poll released June 11 showed Trump trailing six leading Democratic candidates by 5 to 13 percentage points. Former Vice President Joe Biden led Trump, 53%-40%.
On the ground
Trump’s reelection effort is a far cry from the near-solitary, renegade effort he began back in 2015. Back then, Trump had no campaign structure to speak of, relying on a half-dozen top aides and a few dozen employees in a few early primary and caucus states.
This time, the campaign includes Chris Carr, a former political director for the Republican National Committee. Tim Murtaugh, Trump’s communication director, worked on high-profile campaigns in Virginia and was a top aide to Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa. Bill Stepien, a former aide in Trump’s White House, worked on numerous gubernatorial and presidential campaigns.
Using data from past elections, Republicans – and Democrats – search for voters who have registered with their party and turned out. They try to identify voters sympathetic to their side, make sure they are still registered to vote, keep them updated with email and phone contacts and finally make sure they vote.
The long-term mantra: Registration, persuasion and turnout.
GOP campaign officials target specific groups. One example: likely Trump backers who did not vote in the 2018 midterm elections that carried Democrats to control of the U.S. House. Another category is “low propensity” voters whom the campaign aims to persuade to back Trump in this election.
It all starts with three Northern states that Trump carried last time, the first Republican in nearly three decades to do so: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Party officials said they already notice a difference.
“It was certainly a shoestring budget the first time compared with the Clinton campaign,” said David Eyke, chairman of the Kalamazoo County Republican Party in Michigan. “We’re seeing that it is more organized now than it was in 2016.”