Baseball’s offensive standouts
Hurt Yelich has MVP case; Astros’ offense
Before being lost for the remainder of the season with a fractured right kneecap, was Brewers right fielder Christian Yelich heading for a second consecutive National League MVP award?
He certainly was in the thick of the running, if not the favorite. No one would argue that.
Yelich, whose 580 plate appearances make him a qualified hitter in terms of seasonal rankings despite being lost for the team’s final 18 games, ranks first in the NL with a .429 on-base percentage, .671 slugging percentage, 1.100 OPS (a Brewers record), 328 total bases and 178 OPS+. Those numbers alone gave him a foot in the MVP door, but Yelich has many more compelling numbers.
Yelich ranks third in the NL with a .329 batting average, three points higher than the .326 figure that made him the Brewers’ first batting champion in 2018. He is tied for second with 44 home runs, tied for third with 30 stolen bases, tied for seventh with 100 runs scored and 10th with 97 RBI.
Last weekend, with three weeks remaining in the season, Yelich became only the 10th player in major league history to record a 40-30 season (home runs, stolen bases) and only the second reigning MVP to do so.
“This is a guy who has carried us in a number of ways over the last two years,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said Tuesday night after Yelich fouled a pitch off his right kneecap in the first inning of a 4-3 victory in Miami.
“He could have been 21⁄2 weeks away from a repeat most valuable player award.”
Compare those numbers to Dodgers first baseman-outfielder Cody Bellinger, considered a leading MVP contender. Bellinger, who is not leading the league in any of those categories, is batting .306 with 44 home runs, 106 RBI, .410 OBP, .639 slugging percentage, 106 RBI and 1.049 OPS.
When players are close statistically for the MVP award, the team’s fortunes often come into play as a tiebreaker category, and the Dodgers ran away with the NL West crown, which certainly helps Bellinger’s candidacy. But had Yelich led the surging Brewers to a playoff berth, he, too, would have had that factor in his favor.
MVP voters often compare the WAR (wins above replacement) of players in evaluating their MVP worthiness, and Bellinger ranks first in the NL in that category at 8.3 (ESPN.com), with Yelich second at 7.1. But no one would argue that Yelich’s supporting cast has produced at nearly the same level as those around Bellinger in the Dodgers’ lineup.
Games played also is a strong consideration in MVP voting, and Yelich’s season now has been capped at 130 games. Bellinger already has played 141 games and will easily surpass Yelich in that category.
Not that the MVP race is solely between Bellinger and Yelich, as that MLB Network promo suggests as the two engage in a playoff competition. In fact, many players have thrust themselves into the conversation in recent weeks.
Washington third baseman Anthony Rendon, whose club sits in the first wild-card position in the NL, is having a huge season, leading the league with a .335 batting average with 32 home runs and 114 RBI (third), with a 1.044 OPS (also third). Rendon has a .417 OBP and .628 slugging and is considered one of the best at his position in the game.
Arizona infielder-outfielder Ketel Marte has been getting some late-season love in the MVP conversation, also, with the Diamondbacks pushing their way firmly into the wild-card picture. Marte, whose 6.7 WAR is third in the league, is batting .329 with 32 home runs, 91 RBI and .985 OPS and has been the driving force in his team’s unexpected playoff push.
The NL East-leading Atlanta Braves have not one, not two, but three players on their roster worthy of MVP consideration in first baseman outfielder Ronald Acuna, Jr., first baseman Freddie Freeman and third baseman Josh Donaldson. Freeman (38 homers, 117 RBI, .969 OPS) and Donaldson (37 HRs, 88 RBI, .927 OPS) have been run-production monsters but Acuna’s overall game (38 homers, 94 RBI, league-leading 34 stolen bases) provides a compelling case as well. With two more homers, he joins Yelich in the 40-30 club.
It’s possible those three players will split votes, playing for the same club, and make it unlikely any will claim the MVP award. You never know how those voting dynamics might work.
And what about Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who has run away with the NL rookie of the year award? He has carried the team, keeping it in the wildcard picture, and is leading the league with 47 homers in addition to his 109 RBI, .594 slugging percentage and .961 OPS. It might be too much to ask to add MVP honors to his certain ROY award, but Alonso definitely is worth consideration and has the New York spotlight in his favor.
So, there is your MVP field. Yelich’s numbers are now frozen for the year while the others continue to build their cases. Not fair to him, not fair to the Brewers, not fair to the baseball world that has enjoyed watching him play at a level few reach.
Yelich has been one of the most dependable players in the clutch, as he showed Saturday in beating the Cubs 3-2 with an RBI double in the bottom of the ninth inning. Yelich didn’t hit a home run that night but reached base five times, stole three bases and eventually delivered the game-winner in what manager Craig Counsell called “the best game I’ve ever seen Yelich have.”
In trying to describe the enormity of Yelich’s loss late Tuesday night, Counsell said, “We feel awful for Christian. That’s the kind of thing resonating with me right now. He’s a special player. He’s the best at what he does. Not being able to see that every day is definitely no good, but we’ve got to respond.”
It goes without saying that you can’t replace Christian Yelich.
As Stearns said, he might have been 21⁄2 weeks away from another MVP award.
And it’s not completely unthinkable that he still might do so, even without playing another game.
That’s how special a player Yelich is.