No. 4 team to be toughest choice in Playoff rankings
Two weeks into the College Football Playoff rankings, and we have consensus at the top. This only means chaos might be coming, of course. But for now, not many would seriously argue with this ranking:
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
Those are easy. Shuffle them around if you must, but no one would be surprised if those three eventually filled slots in the bracket. What comes next is more difficult to figure:
4. _________
Who’s No. 4? Who knows? The competition for that final spot feels much less settled – or rather, like it’s to be settled over the next few weeks, and quite probably filled by a team currently sitting lower in the rankings.
Georgia is No. 4 this week, getting the nod because of those wins against Notre Dame and Florida – and yeah, despite that terrible loss, at home, to South Carolina.
Meanwhile, the selection committee obviously saw what we all saw, LSU shredding Alabama’s defense in Tuscaloosa, which is why the Tide dropped precipitously, all the way from No. 3 to No. 5.
Yeah, because ’Bama. But while Alabama sits just outside the bracket, seemingly in prime position to get back in, Tuesday’s ranking might actually reveal the Tide need help.
Barring a complete collapse by LSU, ’Bama won’t win the Southeastern Conference West Division. And at 11-1, its resume would not stack up favorably against several teams currently ranked lower than the Tide. No. 5 looks great, but at least in the final ranking, it might also be the ceiling for ’Bama.
Pay attention to these teams:
No. 6 Oregon.
No. 7 Utah.
No. 10 Oklahoma.
No. 13 Baylor.
Yes, No. 8 Minnesota and No. 9 Penn State are in the mix, too. But the Big Ten is going to work itself out. It’ll be represented in the Playoff by Ohio State, Minnesota or Penn State as Big Ten champion (presuming the winner is unbeaten or has only one loss).
Meanwhile, neither No. 11 Florida nor No. 12 Auburn is headed to the Playoff; both already have two losses.
But in either Oregon or Utah, the Pac-12 could have a 12-1 champion. In Oklahoma or Baylor, the Big 12 could have a 12-1 champion or perhaps a 13-0 champion.
The Big 12 is ranked behind the Pac-12, but it’s hard to know whether its champion would remain there. If Oregon and Utah win out and meet in the Pac-12 championship game, it’ll be a Top 10 matchup and a nice resume boost for the 12-1 winner. But either the Sooners or the Bears would have beaten several Top 25 teams in the final weeks, including in the Big 12 championship game, to emerge 12-1 (or maybe 13-0).
Which conference champion would get the nod? It’s hard to know.
It seems easier to extrapolate this, though: A 12-1 or 13-0 conference champion would almost certainly vault past an 11-1 Alabama in the final rankings – which, we’re told, are the only rankings that matter.
The Crimson Tide’s case for the Playoff would include a win against Auburn … and that’s pretty much it. Oh, and also that 46-41 loss to LSU in which the Tigers put up 559 yards, averaged 7.1 yards per play and “led from start to finish,” as selection committee chairman Rob Mullens put it. There was some amount of, uh, game control by the Tigers.
Yeah, it’s a good loss, to the No. 1 team. It’s also a loss. In ranking Georgia No. 4 this week, the committee showed it values quality wins more than it worries about terrible losses.
Beyond Auburn, there probably wouldn’t be a Top 25 win on Alabama’s resume.
In other words, Alabama’s argument is not strong (yeah, but ’Bama). Its streak of always reaching the Playoff – five in a row – is in serious danger.
But here comes the disclaimer: They’re still going to play out the season, which means we should mention a few scenarios:
❚ It’s very possible the Pac-12 and Big 12 champions finish with two losses, which would open the door for a ’Bama bump into the bracket.
❚ And what if Auburn wins the Iron Bowl? The Tigers host Georgia (Saturday) and Alabama (Nov. 30), and while their offense has struggled, their defense might be the nation’s best. Auburn isn’t going to the Playoff, but the Tigers could shake things up in a big way.
❚ One other potential wrinkle: Georgia’s path to the Playoff is solely by winning the SEC championship. But if the Bulldogs did just that, handing LSU its first loss in the title game?
It’s not hard to see the selection committee still determining LSU was one of the four best, giving the SEC two teams in the bracket. That would leave out the Pac-12 and Big 12 champions – and it would also end Alabama’s faded hopes.