Playoff group factors in upset
In some cases, the final score can be misleading. Take Ohio State’s 28-17 win Saturday against Penn State as one example: OSU led 21-0 not long into the second half before two fumbles by quarterback Justin Fields allowed the Nittany Lions to trim the score to 21-17, though the Buckeyes regained control of the game with a touchdown two minutes into the fourth quarter.
Ohio State nearly doubled Penn State in total yardage, controlled the time of possession and converted more than half its third-down attempts against one of the Big Ten’s best defenses. The Buckeyes’ D continued its impressive play by holding the Nittany Lions to 4.6 yards per pass attempt along with an interception.
Meanwhile, LSU continued to work its way through the cellar of the Southeastern Conference.
The latest victim was lowly Arkansas, which held the ball for more than 40 minutes Saturday yet still allowed the Tigers to gain 612 yards and mount eight touchdown drives.
How the College Football Playoff selection committee weighs LSU versus Ohio State in the push for No. 1 is the biggest question heading into the fourth round of the rankings. Here’s what the committee will address:
Can Ohio State take No. 1?
Probably not this week, though a better question might ask what impact a double-digit win at Michigan this week may have on the committee’s point of view. If the Buckeyes beat their rival with room to spare while LSU takes on a Texas A&M team that will be outside of the Playoff rankings ... well, it should give the committee something to consider, at least, though beating Georgia to win the SEC a week later would almost certainly make unbeaten LSU the top overall seed.
Why does it matter who takes No. 1? There are secondary benefits, of course, whether in recruiting or the ability to be placed at the postseason site closest to home — LSU would be able to play in the Peach Bowl, for instance. But the biggest benefit is obvious: LSU or Ohio State would be able to avoid Clemson in the semifinals. Nobody should want to face the Tigers in any game other than the championship.
Is Utah a no-doubt No. 6?
Oregon lost to Arizona State. Penn State now has two losses. Oklahoma was again put on the ropes by a Big 12 opponent, this time TCU, before escaping with a 28-24 win. Minnesota’s win against Northwestern won’t move the needle. Baylor looked
terrific in beating the snot out of Texas, but that win no longer carries much weight as the Longhorns crawl through a miserable regular season. So Utah seems like the no-doubt pick to replace Oregon at No. 6, one spot behind Alabama and in great position to eventually claim a spot in the top four.
Where will 2-loss Oregon end up?
The Ducks have four wins against Power Five opponents with a winning record. They’ve dominated the North Division at 7-1 in Pac-12 Conference play; second-place Oregon State sits at 4-4 heading into this weekend’s Civil War in Eugene. There have been extended periods across the past three months when Oregon looked capable of beating any team in the country, perhaps with the exception of the unquestioned top three. None of this will be enough to stave off a major plummet in this week’s rankings. Oregon will fall behind every other one-loss Power Five team, for starters.
Then there’s the question of whether the Ducks can remain ahead of two-loss Big Ten teams in Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan, along with two-loss Notre Dame. Even if given the benefit of the doubt, the Ducks will end up no higher than No. 11 with the chance of falling as low as No. 16. (Look for something in the middle.) And would the committee consider putting three-loss Auburn ahead of Oregon due to the head-to-head win?
And how far will Penn State fall?
This won’t be as steep a drop. Penn State has two very good losses, to the Buckeyes and Minnesota on the road. While aided by those turnovers, the Nittany Lions are the only team to end up within 24 points of Ohio State. That’s a meaningful marker for the committee to consider. And while the committee might consider the quality of those losses, don’t forget that Penn State has solid wins against Pittsburgh, Iowa, Michigan and Indiana.
Is Memphis-Cincinnati an elimination game?
To have Memphis and Cincinnati meet Friday is a borderline disaster for the American Athletic Conference. The AAC can feel secure in having a one-loss champ reach a New Year’s Six bowl. The same can’t be said if its champion has two losses, which might end up the case regardless of what occurs this week.
A quick setup: 10-1 Cincinnati has clinched the East Division. 10-1 Memphis can clinch the West by beating Cincinnati or if Navy loses at Houston. If Cincinnati beats Memphis and then one of Memphis or Navy next week, the Bearcats head to the New Year’s Six. The Tigers will reach the New Year’s Six with back-to-back wins against Cincinnati.
Look for Memphis and Cincinnati to again lead the way in the rankings among Group of Five teams, with the Tigers one spot ahead of the Bearcats. The rankings make it clear that a one-loss AAC champ will get in, especially since one of Memphis or Cincinnati might post two very impressive wins to end the regular season. But look for Boise State to be right behind, waiting to pounce should the AAC’s nightmare scenario come to pass while the Broncos beat Colorado State and Hawaii.