For 2020, 5 lessons for Democrats
We’ve talked with Trump supporters for three years. Here’s what we learned.
In the past three years, photojournalist Chris Pedota and I have had countless conversations with supporters of President Donald Trump.
Our goal was simple: We wanted to probe beneath the sound bites to explore why such a significant segment supports Trump so enthusiastically.
Our conversations were not limited to Trump voters. Often, when we described this project to Democrats, we were met with a dismissive question that reflects the dismal level of dialogue in our nation: How can anyone support Trump?
The question is revealing — and not in a good way for those who oppose the president. It shows, on one level, an intense contempt by Trump critics for the president’s supporters. (No surprise there.) But it also demonstrates a shallow ignorance of deep injuries that fester in our nation.
If Democrats can’t understand why millions voted for Trump, how do they expect to win the 2020 presidential election? And if they win, how do they expect to bind up the nation’s wounds if they don’t explore why those wounds haven’t healed especially now as Congress — and the nation — struggles with the impeachment inquiry?
In this sense, it’s worth applying the rule of warfare outlined 2,500 years ago by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu: Know your enemy.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles,” Tzu wrote. “If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.”
The Trump supporters we met were uniformly intelligent, well-informed and articulate. They admired Trump but often disliked his erratic behavior. Many wished Trump would cancel his Twitter account.
Yes, some displayed the hateful beliefs of white supremacists. But those were the exceptions. Most were passionate about their lives, their futures and the state of the nation.
At the same time, however, many felt forgotten by the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties. Some said they felt like outliers.
Our journey took us to Ohio steel mills, Pennsylvania coal mines and a West Virginia town struggling with a rampant opioid epidemic.
As a nor’easter churned in the Atlantic, we walked the beach of a Jersey Shore community trying to cope with rising sea levels. We marveled at a Women for Trump rally at a central Jersey golf course and listened to Westchester County (New York) Republicans lamenting their dwindling strength. We documented the sometimes-clumsy attempts of a mostly white town in Pennsylvania’s Pocono foothills to coexist with a flood of Latino immigrants and observed the efforts of Trump supporters in Bernie Sanders’ Vermont and Joe Biden’s Delaware.
In three years, we produced three series — about 30,000 words, more than 500 photographs and two hours of videos. This year, our latest series was published over five weeks by NorthJersey.com and the USA TODAY Network.
Looking to the 2020 campaign, here are five lessons for Democrats to learn 1 from Trump supporters:
Trump’s base is transactional. Many told us they based their decision to vote for him on what they believed they might get in return. Think of this as a new take on Trump’s bestselling 1989 memoir, “The Art of the Deal.”
In 2016, Trump doled out promises — for better health care, more jobs, an improving economy, a modernized transit system, tougher trade policies toward China and a booming stock market. His supporters loved it. “Make America Great Again” was not just a snappy slogan. It was a hope.
Trump delivered on some of those promises, but his achievements have been tempered.
The stock market has soared — and may still rise. More jobs are available, though far too many fall into the category of low-wage work. Trade with China is still unsettled. The health insurance system is still a mess. Bottom line: Much remains to be done.
Many Trump supporters told us their lives had improved. They said they had more money and some said their wages increased. Nonetheless, they did not trust the future.
If the economy slumps, the president’s supporters conceded, he will be in trouble. Trump claims to understand the art of the deal. Well, his deal with supporters could easily fall apart.
2
Rust Belt pain resonates. Trump promised to restore America’s manufacturing sector. He has not delivered. Remember his pledge to bring back steel mills and reopen coal mines?
Or his prediction that U.S. firms that moved overseas would come home? America still waits.
Most steel mills will continue to lie dormant in cities like Youngstown, Ohio. And the best that can be said about the coal industry is that it hasn’t gone completely kaput — yet.
Significantly, Trump’s supporters have not deserted because he hasn’t restored the Rust Belt. Why? Because Democrats have offered little in return.
For decades, Democrats — intoxicated with the elixir of global trade and its stock market wealth — ignored the cries of the Rust Belt. Democrats promised to retrain factory workers and miners. But to what end? Some coal miners I met were earning more than $100,000 a year. Can training programs, dreamed up by office-bound intellectuals in Brooks Brothers suits or Eileen Fisher dresses, find jobs to match those salaries?
Don’t bet on it. Bet on the Rust Belt voting for Trump until the Democrats figure out how to get their hands dirty and 3 actually pay a visit. Impeachment is a dud. Many Trump supporters acknowledge that the president has displayed poor judgment. Many even say it’s worth examining the accusations that he held up military aid to Ukraine as he demanded an investigation of former Vice President Biden and his son Hunter.
Even so, most Trump supporters we met don’t consider this worthy of impeachment. They point out that the military aid was released to Ukraine. Yes, supporters concede the president did open the financial spigot only after he was caught in his petty pressure game with Ukraine. But the issue seems settled. Impeachment is a distraction, they say.
The president’s supporters want Congress to work on solutions for better health care and infrastructure — to name just a few lingering problems.
Democrats are caught in a bind. They support impeachment, and they still promise to address infrastructure and health care. So far, however, the Democrats’ bind — and inaction — is bolstering 4 Trump’s support.
Socialism is the new Red Scare. Trump supporters have turned up their noses to the Democrats’ progressive agenda. How can “Medicare for All” or free college tuition be funded, they ask.
Vermont’s plans for a state-financed, single-payer health insurance system collapsed amid predictions of skyrocketing taxes. In a deli in Nutley, New Jersey, Trump supporters opposed what they call a socialist agenda advanced by Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Yes, other Democratic presidential aspirants — notably Biden and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana — have raised questions about Sanders’ free college plans and Warren’s universal health care proposal. But I’m not sure Democrats see how such progressive ideas have turned off Trump supporters and moderates who could drift into the president’s camp.
Democrats seem to be playing to a progressive base. Trump supporters call this socialism.
Even if Democrats nominate a moderate, can the party shake off its dalliance 5 with socialism?
Keep an eye on Pennsylvania. Pundits always watch “battleground states” like Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Arizona. I’m watching Pennsylvania.
In 2016, Trump won the Keystone State by less than a percentage point — just 45,000 votes over Hillary Clinton. Trump went over the top through victories in former Democratic strongholds in northeast and southwest Pennsylvania. If he can hold on to those corners of the state, he’ll likely win it and its 20 electoral votes.
More important, however, is what victories in those areas signify. In northeast Pennsylvania, voters care about immigration and the loss of manufacturing jobs. In southwest Pennsylvania, they worry about the future of coal mines.
Biden sees the importance of winning these corners of Pennsylvania. Other candidates seem oblivious.
If Democrats listened to Trump voters, it might change their perspective.