Nearly half US residents to be ‘obese’ in 2030

BOSTON – Waistlines of Americans continue to get wider, and unless habits change on a grand scale, obesity soon will be the norm.

Nearly half of the U.S. population is projected to be obese by 2030, and a quarter will struggle with severe obesity by then, says a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

In 10 years, 29 states are projected to have majority populations that are obese, the study says, and all states will have populations that are at least 35% obese.

“Obesity is going up in terms of the number of people who have it, and the degree or severity of obesity is going up,” said Zachary Ward, a Harvard analyst and lead author of the report published Thursday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

Forty percent of Americans adults are obese, and 18% suffer from severe obesity. The study predicts those numbers will balloon by 2030 to 49% and 24% respectively.

Researchers predict severe obesity to be highest among women, non-Hispanic black adults and people who earn annual incomes below $50,000 per year. Among men, 21% are expected to be severely obese by 2030, compared with 28% of women.

Obesity vs. severe obesity

Obesity is measured by body mass index, BMI, which is calculated by dividing a person’s weight in kilograms by the square of their height in meters. A BMI of above 30 is considered obese; above 35 is considered severely obese, which typically means having 100 pounds or more of excess weight.

“People are at a much higher risk (with severe obesity) for diseases like diabetes, heart disease, some types of cancer and mortality,” Ward said.

Obesity is expected to reach the highest levels in the South, which already leads the nation.