QB stats important to Bills’ chances
BILLS (10-6) at TEXANS (10-6) When: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium in Houston
TV: ESPN/ABC
BetMGM.com line: Texans by 21⁄2
Injuries: Locked into the No. 4 seed, Houston coach Bill O’Brien opted to rest key players in a Week 17 loss to the Titans. Most notable were QB Deshaun Watson, who was listed with a back issue, and WR DeAndre Hopkins with an illness. There should be no concern about their status headed into Saturday. CBs Johnathan Joseph (hamstring) and Bradley Robey (hamstring), WRs Kenny Stills (knee) and Will Fuller V (groin), LB Benardrick McKinney (concussion) and LT Laremy Tunsil (ankle) also missed last week. The biggest news, though, is the potential return of DE JJ Watt. He was activated and at practice after spending most of the second half of the season on injured reserve with a torn chest muscle.
Buffalo was locked into the fifth seed and also rested key players. RB Devin Singletary and CB Tre’Davious White didn’t suit up in a loss to the Jets. QB Josh Allen started but was pulled early. Buffalo, however, does have players dealing with injuries. DE Shaq Lawson didn’t practice prior to the regular season finale with a hamstring injury and was inactive. WR Andre Roberts also didn’t practice and sat out Week 17 with a foot injury.
THREE KEYS
1. Allen’s efficiency: When Allen does well, the Bills typically do, too. Look at Allen’s numbers in the 10 victories: 64.9% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 15 TDs, six interceptions, 95.9 passer rating. In the six losses: 48.6% completion rate, 5.5 yards per attempt, five touchdowns, three interceptions, 67.8 passer rating. Obviously, a quarterback’s performance is a big predictor of success, but if Allen is able to find checkdowns and avoid forcing throws, the Bills’ chances of pulling off the upset should improve.
2. Third-and-long? All season, defense has been the Bills’ strength. The unit ranked second in the regular season in scoring (16.2 points allowed per game) and third in total yardage allowed (298.2 per game). Perhaps most important was Buffalo’s ability to force teams to punt. Buffalo ranked seventh in defensive third-down conversion rate (35.8%). The Texans, though, ranked eighth in offensive third-down conversion rate (43.5%). One of the keys could be for Houston to keep third downs to a manageable distance, avoiding third-and-longs.
3. Recurring problem: Pass protection has been a recurring weakness for Houston. Even after trading for Tunsil, the Texans ranked 25th in sacks allowed with 49 and 21st in QB hits with
93. Over the final two games of the season, Houston allowed nine sacks. That’s why Lawson’s status is so critical as one of Buffalo’s most productive pass rushers.