Biden bets on SC: ‘We’re coming back’
WASHINGTON – After earning his first top 2 spot in the Democratic race last week in Nevada, former Vice President Joe Biden heads to a crucial test in the South Carolina primary Saturday, where political experts said a win could breathe life into his flagging presidential campaign – or another loss could end it.
He will be fighting clear front-runner Bernie Sanders, who won the popular vote in the first three nominating contests and performed well among black voters in Nevada’s caucuses. Black voters make up the majority of South Carolina’s Democratic primary electorate, and polls have long showed
Biden with a strong lead among them.
In a speech to supporters Saturday in Las Vegas, Biden was confident: “We’re alive, and we’re coming back, and we’re gonna win . ... I think we’re in a position now to move on in a way that we haven’t been until this moment. I think we’re going to go, we’re going to win in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday, and we are on our way.”
Biden led polls in the Palmetto State by 20 percentage points last fall before placing fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. Biden downplayed those early contests, focusing on more diverse states such as South Carolina, which he argued would better gauge which Democrat should challenge President Donald Trump.
Nevada, which has a significant Latino population, favored Sanders, I-Vt., in its caucuses Saturday, and Biden placed second. In South Carolina, African Americans traditionally account for more than 60% of Democratic primary voters.
Even as the votes were counted in New Hampshire, Biden flew to rally supporters in Columbia, South Carolina.
“Up until now, we haven’t heard from the most committed constituency in the Democratic Party, the African American community,” Biden said at the time. “So to hear all these pundits and experts, all these cable TV talkers talk about the race, tell them: ‘It ain’t over, man. We’re just getting started.’ ”
Biden, 77, enjoys several advantages in South Carolina. He served eight years as vice president to the first black president, Barack Obama. Biden earlier served 36 years in the Senate, where he worked with state political leaders such as House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C. And Biden vacations regularly on Kiawah Island.
“Biden has something here that other candidates just don’t and can’t,” said Jordan Ragusa, associate chair of the political science department at the College of Charleston. “I think Biden is still the favorite in South Carolina, but certainly it seems there are cracks in his firewall.”
‘He has to win’
Biden’s lead over Sanders narrowed to 4 points by Feb. 18, according to an average of state polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com. Political experts said polling is fluid and voters are still making up their minds, but a Sanders win would demonstrate his support among minorities and show that Biden couldn’t win where his prospects were best.
“Biden really has to stake his claim here,” said Robert Oldendick, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina. “He has to win. If he does not win in South Carolina, it’s pretty much the end of his campaign.”
South Carolina’s primary Saturday is the first contest with a significant black population, a key constituency in national Democratic politics. Voters care most about the economy and the protection of social welfare programs but are less interested in ideological issues such as climate change, according to political experts.
“A lot of people say that African American voters in the South are pragmatists,” said Ragusa, who co-wrote “First in the South: Why the South Carolina Presidential Primary Matters.” “They are not as attuned to ideological considerations, like voters in the Midwest or Northeast, white or black.”
A South Carolina ‘reset’
James Hodges, a former South Carolina governor and national co-chairman of Obama’s 2008 campaign, said the state offered a good indicator of who would become the nominee because results in earlier states were muddled in 2008 and 2016. “South Carolina sort of reset the stage, in large part because of the significance of the African American vote,” he said.
Biden, asked about his support slipping among blacks during a conference call Thursday with the Black Economic Alliance, acknowledged that he couldn’t compete with hundreds of millions of dollars spent by two self-funded billionaires in the race: former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg and Tom Steyer.
“But I can compete by showing up because they know me,” Biden said. “They know my heart, they know my head, they know my record and they know what I’ve done.”