Dodgers, A’s top MLB appraisals
This is an unprecedented baseball season beyond the visible and audible reminders, be it the ghost fans in the stands, a ghost runner on second in extra innings or the echo of f-bombs from an aggrieved and socially distanced manager.
No, the oddities extend to assessing the relative strengths, weaknesses and subsequent hopes of all 30 teams. Sure, talent might ultimately prevail, but as we pass the one-third point for most teams, it’s clear so many extraneous factors apply.
Has the team been waylaid or idled by a COVID-19 outbreak? Is playing through a pandemic weighing more heavily on one team than another? How much will unfulfilled – or exceeded – expectations impact the psyche of teams in a 60-game season?
While we imagined a muddled, poorly defined campaign until the very last day, Pandemic Ball has delivered clarity much sooner than we imagined. Narratives can change in a heartbeat – such as the Arizona Diamondbacks enhancing their playoff chances by 25% with five wins in six games –
but bad vibes and bad luck also play outsize roles in such a sprint.
With that, a look at the three-layer cake that is MLB’s 2020 season, with the upper crust bounding toward the playoffs, a middle group featuring significant volatility, and a bottom third that will be very hard-pressed to stay in the moment:
Good vibes only
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Depth, performance, focus, mission – the Dodgers have it all. Their 16-7 record comes against a top-heavy West pod, and now they’ll play their next seven against the reeling Giants and Mariners. Mookie Betts’ contract extension seemed to bring together a group hungering for another World Series shot. Their plus-60 run differential is nearly double the next best squads.
2. Oakland Athletics: They are performing with the urgency required of a group that will lose All-Star shortstop Marcus Semien after this season. A complete team that ranks fourth in the majors in ERA and tied for fifth in home runs, their sweep of the Astros complete with Ramon Laureano’s verboten aggression might be viewed as a seminal moment.
3. New York Yankees: One of these years the Yankees would love not to hear about their amazing depth. Alas, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and now DJ LeMahieu are on the shelf, giving the Mike Tauchmans and Clint Fraziers their standard early-season shine. No matter: Gerrit Cole has been worth every penny, they’re 9-3 against divisional foes and the big boys will be back.
4. Chicago Cubs: The Penultimate Dance might not have the same ring to it, but this star-studded Chicago team potentially on the verge of a breakup might someday be worthy of its own documentary. With Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Jon Lester and Kyle Schwarber all able to walk after next year, the club has recharged under teammate-turned-manager David Ross – and perhaps ensured its viability a while longer.
5. Minnesota Twins: A franchise with an excellent foundation and a versatile, suffocating roster figured to flourish under these conditions. The Twins won 100 games without Josh Donaldson and thus can exercise caution in bringing back their $92 million man from a calf injury.
6. Cleveland Indians: A chic preseason pennant pick thanks to their fantastic pitching, the Indians theoretically could implode thanks to the poor judgment and dishonesty of two of their great young arms, Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger. They remain banished – and it might not matter. The Indians lead the American League with a 2.68 ERA and four shutouts, with Shane Bieber on his way to a Cy Young Award. So maybe they begrudgingly invite back their midnight cowboys, especially after proving they can live without them.
7. Colorado Rockies: Playing with conviction matters in any season, even more so in a 60-game campaign. And by getting off to a 13-8 start with a repaired pitching staff, the Rockies can believe last year’s 91-loss season was the aberration,
and not the two playoff campaigns that preceded it.
8. Atlanta Braves: Mike Soroka’s Achilles tendon tear was devastating, and the impact on this year and 2021 is significant. Yet the team’s young pitching depth can withstand the loss of its ace, though his absence in the postseason will be more glaring.
9. Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos all tested positive early on for COVID-19 but have returned, and so too has the Rays’ ability to suffocate teams with depth. Brandon Lowe has seven home runs and a 209 adjusted OPS. Blake Snell looks more like the 2018 Cy Young winner. Charlie Morton will return. Same as they ever were.
10. Baltimore Orioles: As they sang in 1989, why not? OK, so perhaps the Orioles’ 12-9 start isn’t sustainable, and they’re just a 50-50 shot to crack these watered-down playoffs, but beware the club already outkicking minimal expectations. This team is merciless on lefthanded pitchers – Renato Nunez, Hanser Alberto and Pedro Severino have boosted the club to an MLB-best .949 OPS against them – and settling into well-defined roles. In this uncertain 2020, a nod to the few, the proud, the non-miserable.
Turbulent times
11. Houston Astros: A fan-less season seemed a potential panacea for the game’s most reviled franchise, but then Justin Verlander’s elbow barked, Yordan Alvarez battled COVID-19 and now his ailing knees. Suddenly, Jose Altuve can’t hit, to the delight of the aggrieved masses. As nobody expected, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier (WHIPs of 1.10 and 0.83, respectively) have kept them in it. Can the championship holdovers and the new blood sustain the greatness?
12. Philadelphia Phillies: J.T. Realmuto is putting on a salary drive for the ages, with Bryce Harper and the horntooting fans outside Citizens Bank Park serving as effective wingmen. Yet a bullpen
ranked last in WHIP (1.89) and batting average against (.351) will determine their 2020 fate.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks: A 6-10 start nearly doomed them, but now they’re back above water and might eventually get meaningful contributions from Madison Bumgarner. Count on perhaps two additional playoff spots out of the National League West.
14. Washington Nationals: Stephen Strasburg might not pitch again this year. An already-thin lineup got shorter after Starlin Castro broke a wrist. It’s been an odd follow-up to a championship season, though there are days the singular greatness of Juan Soto seems like more than enough.
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell’s Brewers always seem to find a way, and even after Lorenzo Cain’s opt-out and Christian Yelich’s sudden aversion to hitting, they’re at .500. The Brewers’ center fielders have produced a .616 OPS; the well-regarded Cain’s absence might be felt in smaller ways over the next 40 games.
16. Texas Rangers: Does it get any more surreal than debuting a $1.1 billion ballpark with no fans? The Rangers remain nondescript, but should they cash in a playoff ticket, Lance Lynn – whose ERA-plus is a mere 396 – would be a daunting sight in a short series or knockout game or whatever.
17. San Diego Padres: Ownership has been talking up 2021 for years and now that seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. But as Fernando Tatis reaffirms his greatness and Luis Patino marks the onset of a young pitching cavalry, the steak is getting closer to matching the sizzle.
18. St. Louis Cardinals: There’s just no ducking it – this is going to be really hard. Fifty games remain on the Cardinals’ schedule beginning Tuesday, with just 41 days to contest them as their roster recovers from a COVID-19 ravaging. In a more just world, the Cardinals would survive this journey. But nobody has that kind of pitching depth. We hope we’re wrong.
19. Cincinnati Reds: They traded and spent money to win this year, have been among the more COVID-conscious citizens in the game – and still the odds are moving against them. Thursday begins a run of 15 straight games against the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers. It’s safe to call that a make-or-break stretch.
20. Miami Marlins: The underdog element makes it easy to fall for the Marlins, who still, technically, sit atop the NL East. But they’re eight games in the hole schedule-wise, and goodness, what a schedule – nary a break in the East pod.
It got late, early
21. Chicago White Sox: Call them Padres East – a dynamic, occasionally dazzling and for now incomplete team. The playoff odds are long because the Twins and Indians are such overwhelming favorites to claim the two automatic berths out of the Central.
22. New York Mets: High hopes abounded even after Noah Syndergaard’s Tommy John surgery in the spring, but the Mets sputtered out of the shutdown. Marcus Stroman hurt his calf and then opted out, Jacob deGrom has had mild physical setbacks, Steven Matz has a 9.00 ERA in five starts and the offense has struggled to hit in a timely fashion. Tough to judge a GM after such an aberrational season, but Brodie Van Wagenen’s first two years of maneuvers have cost the franchise a lot.
23. Toronto Blue Jays: They’re 2-3 at home and 5-8 on the road, and my goodness, who are we trying to fool: They’re all road games for the Buffalo Jays. Victims of Canada’s deft handling of COVID-19, the Blue Jays finally have a “home” in Buffalo – but now no Bo Bichette, out with a knee injury.
24. Los Angeles Angels: They’re 3-1 when Dylan Bundy starts, 4-14 when anyone else does. Mike Trout’s and Anthony Rendon’s wondrous skills can’t make up for a bottom-third pitching staff, and even in a short season, the Angels seem powerless to close the gap on the Astros and A’s.
25. Detroit Tigers: This ragtag crew was fun for a few minutes, and now they’ll finally get to glimpse the future with the call-ups of Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal.
26. Kansas City Royals: Like the Tigers, the Royals can glean hope from the pitching debuts of Brady Singer and Kris Bubic.
27. Seattle Mariners: Perhaps the most dispiriting of their 19 consecutive years missing the playoffs. The Mariners might have unearthed a keeper or two – most notably outfielder Kyle Lewis – but the big picture remains grim for a franchise seemingly lacking direction.
28. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey’s opt-out further reinforced the rebuilding and teachable vibe of this season, which has nonetheless done little to keep fans from grumbling about new manager Gabe Kapler’s maneuvering.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates: Living up to expectations, in that the NL Central was seen strictly as a four-team race. DH Colin Moran is the only regular hitting at a league-average level.
30. Boston Red Sox: Fired their manager after a cheating scandal, traded a franchise icon, lost their ace to myocarditis brought about by COVID-19 and now plumbing the depths of pitching futility not seen at Fenway Park in more than a century. No club, record-wise and perhaps otherwise, has had a worse 2020 than the 6-16 Red Sox.