Biden at risk in Fla. with Cuban American voters
MIAMI, Fla. – Annette Collazo, a Florida Democrat who is running for the state legislature, was campaigning at a constituent’s home when she heard a TV ad that caught her attention.
Former Vice President Joe Biden and other Democrats were shown side-byside with Latin American leaders such as former Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and former Cuban leader Fidel Castro. The ad was paid for by President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign on Spanish-language television.
“It is a concern because it’s such a very offensive accusation,” said Collazo, who is Cuban American. “It’s preying on people’s vulnerabilities, their sensitivities, their family trauma of having to leave everything in their home country to come here.”
“I think it’s deceptive,” Collazo said. The ad is one of many that have dominated TV and radio in the state, and its message appears to be resonating with an influential group of Latino voters in Florida: Cuban Americans.
Biden is underperforming with Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade, the largest county in the state, as well as with Latino voters across Florida, according to recent polling. The lack of support from Latino voters could cost Biden a win in Florida, which has backed the national winner in every election except one since 1964.
Trump narrowly won the state four years ago by a little more than 1%, a margin of fewer than 113,000 votes out of more than 9.5 million cast.
Weeks of anxious prodding from Florida Democrats that Biden has taken the state for granted could finally be paying off.
On Tuesday, Biden will make his first visit to the Sunshine State since he secured the Democratic nomination. The former vice president also is doing more to take on the round-the-clock attacks that he’s a socialist, a potent message when delivered to Latinos who fled repressive regimes. And key allies, notably former New York City Mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg, are pledging to expand their efforts to help Biden win the state.
The question now: Is it too little too late?
The importance of Miami-Dade County
Biden’s visit Tuesday comes a few days after his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, campaigned in Miami.
The president and Biden are virtually tied in the Sunshine State, according to an NBC News/Marist poll, after several polls over the summer had showed the former vice president with a lead.
The poll also shows Biden trailing Trump among Latino voters in the state, 46%-50%, a group Hillary Clinton won by nearly 30 points four years ago.
Hispanic people in Florida make up
about a quarter of the state’s roughly 21.5 million population and 17% of its registered voters. As the single biggest Hispanic ethnicity in the nation’s biggest swing state, Cuban Americans in South Florida wield big influence on the political stage. They have generally leaned Republican, but younger generations are more liberal.
Biden doesn’t need Florida to win the presidency, but capturing the Sunshine State would likely portend an overwhelming victory nationally and be an embarrassing setback for the president who made the state his primary residence after complaining about being treated “very badly” by political leaders in New York.
Biden has cut into Trump’s support with older voters in Florida and nationally but some of his strength with that demographic has been offset by his weakness with Latino voters, including Cuban Americans.
Biden could get a boost from outside his campaign. A top aide to former presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg confirmed media reports that the former New York City mayor plans to spend at least $100 million to help Biden in Florida.
Nuestro PAC, a group focused on Latino voter outreach created by former Bernie Sanders advisor, Chuck Rocha, also is investing millions into bilingual mail outreach to newly registered Latino voters in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Some Democrats also want to see Biden hit back more strongly against Trump’s characterization of the party as “radical socialists.” The message has struck a nerve with many Latinos who are Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans, some of whom have fled communist regimes or have family members who did.
‘Democrats have gone silent’
Al Cardenas, a Cuban American activist who once chaired Florida’s Republican Party, said the Trump campaign has successfully wooed South Florida Latinos largely because the president’s frequent broadsides against the Castro regime in Cuba and the Maduro regime in Venezuela have gone unanswered.
“Democrats have gone silent on the subject, so he filled up that silence to satisfy significant portion of the exile communities,” said Cardenas, who opposes Trump’s reelection but has not endorsed Biden.
In July, a seven-page letter from Florida Democratic Party field organizers accused the Biden campaign of lacking a “fully actionable field plan” as moves into working with the Florida party on voter outreach, according to the Miami Herald. Last month, Voto Latino CEO Maria Teresa Kumar said the Biden campaign nationally has not done enough outreach to the Latino community.
Susan MacManus, political science professor emeritus at South Florida University, said the letter “was no surprise to us because it happens every four years.”
“People from outside of Florida think the Latino vote in Florida is cohesive and it’s very diverse,” MacManus said.
Door-to-door versus social media
While the Trump campaign has an extensive strategy of door-to-door campaigning, Democrats are relying far more on social media. Obama’s Cuba policy, which many older Cubans objected to, remains a millstone for Biden, some analysts said.
The Biden campaign says it is not taking the Latino vote for granted. During Harris’ visit in Doral, she spoke briefly with diners in the restaurant and met with political strategist Ana Navarro and Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo.
The campaign also launched a series of television and radio ads aimed at appealing to Latino voters in Florida. Two of the ads focus on Trump’s handling of the economy and how Latino small business owners contribute to the economy. A third is focused on outreach to Puerto Rican voters in Florida that criticizes the president’s response to Hurricane Maria, which devastated the island in 2017.
Ahead of the Florida primary in March, the Biden campaign also created Latino organizing groups in the state, such as Cubanos Con Biden – “Cubans With Biden” — and Boricuas Con Biden, or “Puerto Ricans With Biden.” The groups have done digital organizing, phone banking and caravans, called “Ridin’ With Biden.” Cubanos Con Biden has called into radio shows to amplify Biden’s campaign message.
Biden’s Florida press secretary Kevin Munoz said the groups “ensure that members of their own community are communicating to their friends, their families about Joe Biden and doing this really culturally competent organizing.”
“It speaks to the fact that we cannot just use a one-size-fits-all approach to reaching Hispanics,” he said.