La Niña will have her say on weather this winter

It won’t be long until we’re talking wool hats, ice storms and snowmen. How bad will your weather be this winter?

If you hate the cold, there’s good news for some of you: Federal forecasters said Thursday that much of the nation’s southern tier and the East Coast should see warmer-than-average temperatures this winter. Most of the southern half of the USA – all the way from central California to the Carolinas – should see less rain and snow than usual.

The lack of precipitation in the South does not bode well for the region. Drought may be the main weather story of the winter, especially in the parched Southwest, experts said.

“With a La Niña climate pattern in place, southern parts of the U.S. may experience expanded and intensifying drought during the winter months ahead,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency that issued the forecast, which covers the months of December, January and February.

La Niña – a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average water in the central Pacific Ocean – is one of the main drivers of weather around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

“With La Niña well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North and warmer, drier South as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year,” Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a statement.

La Niña is the opposite pattern of the more well-known El Niño, which features warmer-than-average water in the central Pacific Ocean.

Two parts of the country that should see below-normal temperatures are the northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest, NOAA said. Those areas, along with the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, should see more rain and snow than usual.

This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall as rain, snow or ice, only that more or less is likely overall. Snow forecasts depend upon the strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center said.

Halpert said La Niña winters tend to not feature the blockbuster East Coast winter storms or blizzards that can paralyze the big Northeastern cities. That’s more likely with El Niño, he said.