Upperclassmen fuel new favorites
There is no shortage of storylines for the 2020-21 college men’s basketball season set to tip off Wednesday – two weeks later than its scheduled start date due to the coronavirus pandemic.
USA TODAY examines the national title contenders, the surprises and the major challenges heading into the return to March Madness in three months. We also look at some coaching situations around the sport.
Coronavirus pandemic . The season tips off eight months after the NCAA tournament was canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. While March Madness is slated to return and most Division I schools (the Ivy League will not play) are expected to partake in the season, the next few months will be riddled with uncertainty due to COVID-19 precautions and restrictions – and, potentially, cases. Games will look different as many campuses won’t allow fans (at least to start the season) and scheduling already has become an issue because of outbreaks. What will the NCAA Tournament – expected to be played in its entirety in Indianapolis this year – look like come March? Only time will tell.
Tough choices for NCAA committee. COVID-19 could also make it more difficult in assessing the 68-team tournament field. The NCAA tournament selection committee typically takes into account injuries when examining a bubble team’s at-large bid profile. How will it assess a team with a borderline résumé that misses games? How will forfeits and cancellations be assessed? Will a mid-major program be given the benefit of the doubt – even if its NET score is not stellar – considering the scheduling of power conference opponents? Mid-major programs, which generate major dollars by playing games at power league schools, could be affected the most if the committee does not adjust its procedures.
No. 1 Baylor and No. 2 Gonzaga. The Bears and the Zags bring back the core of their rosters and have the talent to make a deep March run after seeing their chances as projected No. 1 seeds be nixed this year. That means a Dec. 5 meeting could be an early preview at the national title game. Bears coach Scott Drew has a roster capable of winning a loaded Big 12, although it’ll have to fend off Kansas and a Texas Tech team full of high-impact transfers. Baylor is equipped to get back to the Final Four for the first time in seven decades. Gonzaga coach Mark Few sees USA TODAY first-team preseason All-America forward Corey Kispert return and five-star freshman Jalen Suggs arrive. This team could tie Kansas and Villanova for the most consecutive 30-win seasons (four). Neither program has won a national title, though they have been runners-up.
Upperclassmen influx. Because of the timing of the NBA draft – which was moved from June to last week due to COVID-19 – a large crop of the best players in the country remained in college basketball. The biggest beneficiaries seem to be in the Big Ten, in which Iowa and Illinois are projected top-10 teams with Final Four capability, and a veteran-laden Wisconsin squad. Expect veterans driving title contender teams to be a common theme of 2020-21. Iowa’s Luka Garza, a 7-footer who averaged nearly 24 points per game and a double-double, will be the favorite to win national player of the year, and Illinois has a USA TODAY preseason first-team All-American guard in Ayo Dosunmu.
Are UNC, UCLA back? A couple of blue bloods are on the cusp of breaking out. North Carolina coach Roy Williams was regularly venting in postgame news conferences last season as his team went 14-19 and finished last in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Expect his squad to be reloaded with a stellar freshman class and a solid batch of returnees. Despite a dreadful start in the first part of Year 1, Bruins coach Mick Cronin took a team lacking five-star talent to the cusp of the NCAA tourney bubble and Pac-12 title contention. UCLA is well-positioned to improve on being a middling team thanks to the returns of Chris Smith and Tyger Campbell.
ACC up for grabs. In what is expected to be more of a down year for top conferences, Duke will be very young but will possess the most talent on paper, with five-star freshmen Jalen Johnson and Jeremy Roach headlining coach Mike Krzyzewski’s roster. But Virginia is likely to be the favorite thanks to Marquette transfer Sam Hauser and steady point guard Kihei Clark. But reigning conference champ Florida State, despite losing key pieces, has enough talent (namely freshman guard Scottie Barnes) to do damage again.
Kansas under scrutiny. No. 5 Kansas, accused of rules violations, has been under investigation by the Independent Accountability Resolution Process (IARP). The determination of infractions – the potential postseason bans – was delayed due to COVID-19. There are no appeals to the IARP’s final decisions, whenever they’re made.
Coaching intrigue. Hall of Famer Rick Pitino returns to the college game as the head coach at Iona after his dismissal from Louisville amid a pay-forplay scheme involving a recruit. Can he transform the mid-major into a Metro Atlantic Athletic contender and return to the NCAAs?
Coaching hot seat. Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall left the program following an investigation for improper conduct. There are a handful of other coaches who will need big surges in 2020-21 to keep their job status in good form. Texas coach Shaka Smart has the talent to vie for a top-three Big 12 finish. If he doesn’t deliver in his sixth year at the school, impatient Texas fans could drive Smart out of town as there’s only been first-round exits and an NIT championship in his tenure. Coach Andy Enfield, who needs a breakthrough, brings in top-five recruit Evan Mobley, a key piece who could elevate Southern California in a wide-open Pac-12. LSU coach Will Wade and Arizona coach Sean Miller also are under a microscope due to their run-ins from NCAA and FBI investigations. Indiana’s Archie Miller and Florida’s Michael White could use solid seasons, as the historic successes of their programs hold them to a higher standard.