California and the nation await the results of recall
LOS ANGELES – Tuesday was decision day in California and voters from the country’s most populous state got the chance to decide whether they would keep Gov. Gavin Newsom or recall him.
It’s been a winding path to get here, but polls showed the Democrat is likely to keep his job leading a state that is known nationally as a liberal trendsetter.
Regardless of the result, the election itself is both rare and historic. A Newsom recall would potentially send shockwaves across the country and throughout the Democratic Party.
Only twice in U.S. history has a governor been removed from office via recall; in North Dakota in 1921; and in California in 2003, when Gray Davis was removed and replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger.
On the eve of the election, Newsom got a boost from President Joe Biden, with the commander in chief telling voters at a campaign rally that the “eyes of the nation are on California.” Biden warned Monday in Long Beach, California, that removing the first-term governor would carry consequences that would reverberate around the nation and risk returning to the “dark, destructive, divisive politics” of former President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner, conservative radio host Larry Elder, labeled by Biden as a “Trump clone,” predicted victory.
“Make sure you have your friends vote, vote, vote, and try and get 10 more friends to vote and hit every call, make every call, knock on every door, we’re gonna win this thing if we turn out the vote,” Elder said this week.
How the California recall works
Voters will be asked two questions on their ballot: Should Newsom be recalled? If more than 50% of voters say yes, then the next question will be key: Who should replace him?
Forty-six candidates will appear on the ballot. Elder has consistently been leading polls among those vying to replace Newsom.
Other prominent Republican candidates running include Caitlyn Jenner, a former Olympic gold medalist who starred on the reality series “Keeping Up with the Kardashians”; former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer; California Assemblyman Kevin Kiley; and John Cox, a businessman who was easily defeated by Newsom in the 2018 gubernatorial election.
The only leading Democratic candidate who has emerged in the race is Kevin Paffrath, a real estate broker and YouTube personality.
When should we expect final results?
The first polls in the state close at 8 p.m. PDT and a flood of results are expected from mail-in ballots and early inperson votes. About 37% of the roughly 22 million ballots sent to California voters had been returned as of Monday, according to an analysis from Political Data Inc.
Democrats had returned a larger share of those ballots than Republicans, meaning early results could show good signs for Newsom. But that might not last and the number of voters who turn out Tuesday will likely be crucial in deciding the race.
California historically takes weeks to count all the votes in statewide elections. In 2020, when nearly 18 million people cast ballots, a third of the votes in the presidential election were counted after election night. Two years earlier, more than 40% were counted after Election Day.
Mailed ballots can arrive up to a week after Tuesday and still be counted, as long as they are postmarked by Sept. 14. This process can take days or weeks. Mail ballots are generally counted in the order they are received, so the last ballots to be counted tend to be the last ones to arrive.
In 2020, Republicans were much less likely than Democrats to vote by mail in part because Trump repeatedly claimed that voting by mail was susceptible to fraud.
If that trend continues, the results in the recall election could swing back and forth on election night, depending on which types of votes are being reported – mail ballots or inperson votes.