Bettors like MacKinnon’s hot hand
Nathan MacKinnon is a man on a mission.
Even with the heaviest of tasks still before him, bettors envision the Colorado Avalanche center as the most obvious choice to fulfill his destiny.
Tipico Sportsbook reports it’s carrying its greatest liability on MacKinnon as the +210 second choice to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Colorado defenseman Cale Makar is the +180 Conn Smythe favorite at Tipico, and he stands as a +225 co-favorite with MacKinnon at the Las Vegas SuperBook. The abundance of action at Tipico has gravitated to MacKinnon as the Game 1 puck drop neared Wednesday night in Denver.
“MacKinnon leads the team in goals this postseason and with the Avs as the odds-on favorite to win the Cup, (he) and Makar look to be the best bets,” Tipico spokesman Sunny Gupta said.
The Avalanche are -160 favorites in Game 1 to defeat the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, who are +130 underdogs.
For the series, Colorado, which has skated to a 12-2 playoff record by sweeping the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference finals, is a -190 favorite to hoist the Cup while Tampa Bay is a +155 ’dog.
The Lightning became the first team since the Wayne Gretzky/Mark Messier-led Oilers of the mid-1980s to appear in three consecutive finals by eliminating the New York Rangers in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals Saturday.
Should Tampa Bay defeat Colorado, it would become the first team since the 1982 New York Islanders to win three consecutive Stanley Cups.
Yet the Lightning’s most identifiable player, center Steven Stamkos, is a more distant 13-1 underdog to win the Smythe, slotted behind two teammates.
Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is the Lightning’s top choice at +400 at Tipico. With a 12-5 postseason record, Russia’s Vasilevskiy has a 2.27 goals against average and .928 save percentages.
Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov is also +400 after producing seven goals and 16 assists this postseason.
The heavier attention on MacKinnon is somewhat rooted in the fact that Tipico and SuperBook operate shops in Colorado, but not in Florida.
But the No. 1 overall pick in 2013 is elevating his game while surrounded by a complete cast of teammates.
MacKinnon, 26, has 11 goals and seven assists in the 14 playoff games, including five power-play goals. He had seven power-play goals during the 82game regular season and scored 28 goals in 50 playoff games before a playoff surge in which MacKinnon is +12 with 82 shots.
“A fantastic offensive player,” Las Vegas SuperBook Vice President Jay Kornegay said of MacKinnon.
With that said, Kornegay said he and Avalanche fans are actually more appreciative of Makar, who was the No. 4 overall pick in 2017.
Makar, 23, has five goals and 17 assists while contributing a +11 during the playoffs.
“He’s one of the best two-way players we’ve seen in a long, long time and he’s been fantastic from the time he left college,” Kornegay said. “People might first think of MacKinnon when they think of the Avs, but I’ve asked their fans, ‘If you had to trade one of them, who would it be?’ And three of four them say MacKinnon.”
The Stanley Cup Final is dwarfed in betting action by the activity on the attractive Golden State Warriors-Boston
Celtics NBA Finals, with Kornegay estimating he’ll take up to eight times more action on the NBA than the NHL.
“Especially this year, with such a great matchup – the tradition of the Celtics versus the popularity of the Warriors – it gives the NBA a huge advantage,” he said.
And despite the exit of the widely popular Rangers, bettors are moved by the significance of this series, placing 88% of their moneyline bets on the Avalanche and following a season-long trend by backing the over 6.5 goals at a 66% clip at Tipico.
Meanwhile, the future-book betting on both teams is mixed from book to book, with the SuperBook pulling for the Avalanche to eliminate its liability and Bally’s Interactive needing the Lightning for the same reason.
At Caesars, Colorado has led in future tickets and dollars since the start of the playoffs, but, in a twist, a Colorado bettor wagered $10,000 on the Lightning to win the Cup halfway through the regular season, at 11-1 odds, meaning they’ll collect $110,000 if Tampa Bay completes its “threepeat.”
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