If House flips red, you can thank Fla.
State and DeSantis are the center of national attention as redistricting is the focus of litigation
PALM BEACH, Fla. – Did Gov. Ron DeSantis also flip the U.S. House red, too? He had a hand in it, sort of.
That’s because with no red wave in last week’s midterm election, the path to a Republican majority in the chamber, currently a projection, indeed is cutting through Florida.
That route, however, is the topic of ongoing litigation over Florida’s redistricted boundaries. Four organizations that advocate for fair voting and proper minority representation – the Equal Ground Education Fund; the Black Voters Matter Capacity Institute; the League of Women Voters of Florida: and Florida Rising – have sued over Florida’s new congressional map.
A House majority is now of much more urgency for Republicans after Democratic incumbent U.S. Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Mark Kelly of Arizona on Saturday were projected to win reelection, securing a majority in the chamber for their party.
In the House, GOP congressional candidates have captured 217 seats to the Democrats’ 204. A party needs 218 seats in the House for a majority, allowing it to choose the speaker of the House, determine committee chairmanships and decide which bills come up for a vote, let alone pass.
It is projected the GOP could win 221 seats, with 214 for the Democrats. Enter Florida.
Coming into this year’s election, Republicans held 16 seats in the Sunshine State. The Democrats owned 11.
As of Tuesday’s results, Republicans will hold 20 Florida congressional seats to the Democrats’ eight. That’s a pickup of four seats. Without those gains, the GOP’s count in the U.S. House would be 217, one short of the 218 needed for a majority, assuming projected results hold.
How did the GOP increase its edge in Florida? That’s where the governor had a role.
First, the state got an extra seat courtesy of the 2020 census, and that district was drawn by the Republican-majority Legislature to favor the party’s candidate. That was one pickup.
Another came when Republican candidate Anna Paulina Luna won the St. Petersburg area seat vacated by former U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, who resigned in
August to run for governor against DeSantis.
A third came from a battle between two incumbents, Republican U.S. Rep. Neil Dunn and Democratic U.S. Rep. Al Lawson. How did they get matched up?
Enter DeSantis.
The governor intercepted the legislative redistricting process this year to break up Lawson’s largely Black district. Dunn, who is white, and Lawson, who is
Black, then ended up facing each other in the merged portions of their districts that is now much more favorable to the Republican.
Republican Laurel
Lee, a former Florida secretary of state, won the district that includes the other piece formerly represented by Lawson.
That’s exactly what the voting and representation advocacy groups feared, and why they say they will continue to challenge the state’s congressional boundaries in the courts. They pointed out the “congressional elections were held under a congressional map that was already found to be blatantly unconstitutional by a state court judge” and violated the state’s own Fair District
Amendments.
“As control of the United States House hangs in the balance, we are once again reminded of the importance of free and fair elections,” the groups said in a statement. “Our coalition rejects gerrymandering that disenfranchises and discriminates against voters on the basis of race or their party and will continue to advocate for congressional maps that adhere to the Florida Constitution and do not favor one political party over the other, as the DeSantis map used this election cycle does.”
Whether the legal challenge succeeds, what is certain is a GOP majority will change the public policy dynamic in Washington.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, has reportedly already said he intends to seek the House speaker’s post.
Democrats were largely able to call the shots on legislation during President Joe Biden’s first two years.
They passed pandemic relief, infrastructure spending, gun safety legislation and even debt ceiling increases.
With a GOP-controlled U.S. House, the Biden agenda, including voting safeguards and other domestic spending, comes to a screeching halt. Even military aid to Ukraine, a bipartisan issue when the war broke out in February, could be a hotly debated topic.