Not so fast on playoff, Heisman
The college football season is winding down, but the action is as intense as ever. The Week 12 slate of surprising results and near misses produced its usual supply of reactions – and of course overreactions.
We’re here to sort through them as we’ve done all season, because while matters are largely settled in the major conferences, there is a lot that could still happen by the time champions are crowned and bowl invitations are handed out in two weeks.
So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late.
Here are the top five overreactions from Week 12.
We already know the four College Football Playoff teams
Since Tennessee was kind enough to excuse itself from the discussion, a relatively controversy-free scenario is now in play with a foursome consisting of Georgia, the Ohio State-Michigan winner, TCU and Southern Cal. This assumes, of course, that that quartet reaches the finish line without other complications.
But if Saturday taught us anything, it’s that nothing is certain even for the teams that have yet to taste defeat this season. USC has the toughest remaining path of the contenders, squaring off with a suddenly hot Notre Dame squad this weekend before meeting, most likely, Oregon in the Pac-12 finale. Those would both be quality victories for the Trojans that would likely cement their playoff bona fides if they make it to 12-1, but that’s hardly a guarantee. TCU, as we know, has been living on the edge all season. The Horned Frogs are likely destined to meet Kansas State in the Big 12 title game, a rematch for which the Wildcats have been itching since their first encounter with TCU.
The winner between the Wolverines and Buckeyes will be heavily favored in the Big Ten finale but will likely be facing an Iowa squad whose defense could still make life difficult. Even Georgia hasn’t looked invincible. While the Bulldogs were never in real danger of losing Saturday at Kentucky, the Bulldogs found the end zone just once as their offense bogged down repeatedly in the red zone. UGA’s SEC championship game opponent, LSU, might also have a chance to make a playoff case, so it might not be a walk in the park for the Bulldogs. In short, there could be simplicity, but there’s still potential for a lot of complications even at this late date.
Clemson is out of the playoff
Like Southern California, the Tigers would be the champions of a Power Five conference with a 12-1 record should they win their last two games. In theory, they’d still be in the playoff equation, but if the simple scenario laid out above comes to pass, Clemson would likely be the fifth choice with only four spots available.
For one thing, the ACC lacks the overall depth of the Pac-12, which should have six teams in the committee’s top 25 when those rankings are revealed Tuesday. Clemson’s ACC championship game opponent, North Carolina, didn’t help matters by losing to Georgia Tech over the weekend. The Tigers will at least be under consideration, but they’ll probably need help to get to the top four. As we mentioned several weeks ago in this space, they’ll be big Notre Dame fans over the Thanksgiving holiday because a win by the Irish helps mitigate their loss and knocks USC down a peg.
The elephant in the room: They’re going to put Alabama in after all, aren’t they?
Past playoff success is not supposed to have any bearing on the current season’s rankings. But there were the Crimson Tide nevertheless, with two losses but hovering in the top 10 in the initial committee list despite a less than impressive slate of accomplishments this year. Sure, both losses were on the road on the game’s final play, but Alabama’s best win is – Texas? Ole Miss? But no matter. The committee is just waiting for chaos to erupt, and they’ll move the Tide right back into the top four – or so the conspiracy theory goes.
In truth, however, it would probably take an unprecedented level of chaos for that to happen – like every major conference championship game producing an upset, a complete Pac-12 meltdown on the final weekend of the regular season, and probably even Georgia and TCU each losing their last two contests. And oh yeah, LSU would probably have to lose to Texas A&M as well. So relax, theorists. It’s probably not going to happen.
USC’s Caleb Williams just won the Heisman
The USC standout quarterback almost certainly moved to the head of the line with his 503-yard, three-TD performance in the high-stakes victory against archrival UCLA. For the season, he has accounted for 3,796 yards of total offense and 40 touchdowns. He’ll have another chance to impress as well in the Trojans’ aforementioned spotlight game against Notre Dame. The race isn’t quite over yet though, as Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud will have his opportunity in the high-profile setting against Michigan. But in all honesty, it might be down to those two.
Cincinnati is going back to the New Year’s Six
The Bearcats seemed like a long shot to reach a major bowl for a third consecutive year after starting the campaign with a close loss at Arkansas then seeing its lengthy American Athletic Conference winning streak snapped at Central Florida. Cincy still has work to do, but if it gets past upstart Tulane at home next week, the Bearcats will earn a chance to defend their AAC title. A victory in the conference championship game would very likely make them the highest-rated Group of Five squad once again before heading off for the Big 12.