Storm is brewing in Gulf of Mexico
As if on cue, a tropical system bubbled up in the Gulf of Mexico on the first day of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
The system has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next two days, the National Hurricane Center said.
If it becomes a named storm, which would happen if its sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Arlene.
In an update late Thursday, the hurricane center said that “environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon.”
The hurricane center added that the system probably would meander over the northeastern Gulf and begin a slow southward motion Friday.
By the weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts south.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system if necessary, the hurricane center said.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall was possible across much of Florida through the weekend, the hurricane center said.
Through Saturday, 1 to 2 inches of rain was expected in the northern part of the Florida Peninsula, and 2 to 4 inches and locally higher amounts over the southern half, depending on the track and development of the system, AccuWeather said.
Flash flooding was possible in some areas where areas where thunderstorms could stall or move very slowly for an hour or so, Weather.com said.
A flood watch was in effect for portions of Southeast and South Florida until late Friday, the National Weather Service said, including the Miami and Fort Lauderdale metro areas.
Though the first named storm of the 2023 season will be Arlene, it will actually be the second storm of the season. A system in January was classified in May as a subtropical storm, but because the classification came in a postanalysis, it did not get a name and will be documented as “Unnamed.”
Top forecasters from Colorado State University slightly increased their forecast Thursday for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. They now predict 15 named storms, of which seven will be hurricanes. That’s up from their previous forecast of 13 and six.
The reason for the higher prediction is the near-record high water temperatures in the tropics, which support storm and hurricane development. Those conditions will be doing battle with El Niño, a climate pattern in the Pacific. El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, which tears apart storms.
The six-month 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially began Thursday and lasts until Nov. 30.