100 wins guarantee nothing in MLB
PHOENIX – Let’s face it, the first two rounds of the postseason provided all of the drama of a “Gilligan’s Island” rerun.
There were a potential 32 games in the first two rounds and only 22 games were played.
The best-of-three wild-card round featured four two-game sweeps.
The best-of-five division series brought us two sweeps, two four-game series.
There were barely had any lead changes the first two rounds.
Let’s see, the Los Angeles Dodgers did not lead a single inning in the 27 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Baltimore Orioles led in only one of 27 innings.
Atlanta led in only two of 36 innings. There was only one lead change in the Houston Astros-Minnesota Twins series.
The noise you heard wasn’t a defect on your TV set – but the crying from the networks with these historically low ratings.
So, now that the 100-victory Dodgers, Orioles and Atlanta are sitting home after being bounced in the Division Series, a cheap and lazy narrative has taken root that the playoff system must be changed.
The critics will tell you these upsets devalue the integrity of the 162-game regular season.
Well, hate to break the news – but that's complete and utter nonsense.
The first-round byes had nothing to do with those quick eliminations.
The fact of the matter is that these 100-victory teams were severely flawed when they got to the postseason.
It’s a miracle the Dodgers won 100 games with all their pitching woes and injuries. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts deserves a statue for leading them to their runaway season. But by the time they reached the postseason to play the Arizona Diamondbacks, it was a complete mismatch.
Their starting rotation of Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn lasted a combined 4 innings, yielding a 20.50 ERA. Kershaw didn’t get out of the first inning. Miller didn’t get out of the second inning. And Lynn didn’t get out of the third inning.
That wasn’t a fluke. That was reality. The rotation was such a mess that the lone starter remaining from their opening-day starting rotation was Kershaw.
“I’ve got to figure out a way to get these guys prepared for whatever format, whatever series,” Roberts said. “Yeah, the regular season, I think we do a great job. But the last couple of postseasons it just hasn’t gone well for us. So, I’ve got to figure it out.”
Certainly, it didn’t help the cause that Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman went 1-for-21, with their team hitting .177 while scoring just six runs– the Dbacks’ total in the first inning of Game 1.
But instead of blaming the layoff, they happened to be facing Diamondbacks prized starting pitchers of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, along with talented rookie Brandon Pfaadt.
“I hate to say that this break got us swept,” Dodgers infielder-outfielder Enrique Hernandez said. “It’s just, everything aside, we just didn’t play good baseball. I’m not worried about what the Orioles did, or what the other NLDS series is looking like. …
“I’m here. I live here. I’m with my guys. We didn’t play good baseball. There’s no other way to put it. They played better, and this happened.”
The Orioles had a terrific season, finishing with the best record in the American League. Brandon Hyde should run away with the AL Manager of the Year award with Mike Elias the Executive of the Year. Yet, they had a shaky starting rotation and never recovered from the loss of All-Star closer Felix Bautista. They also got little help at the deadline. Their only three additions to the pitching staff were Shintaro Fujinami, Jack Flaherty and Jacob Webb. They were all busts, with Fujinami failing to make the playoff roster while Flaherty was demoted to the bullpen.
Little wonder they gave up 21 runs in three games to the Texas Rangers, and were swept for the first time since May, 2022.
“They outplayed us,” Orioles catcher James McCann told reporters. “It’s just that simple.’’
Atlanta cruised all season with the National League’s best record, all but wrapping up the NL East title by the AllStar break. But when the postseason hit, they were without veteran starter Charlie Morton and 2022 21-game winner Kyle Wright, while ace Max Fried missed the final two weeks of the regular season with blister problems. Their offense also disappeared at the worst time, hitting .186 while scoring just eight runs in the four games.
“We’re not a group that makes excuses,” said Atlanta starter Spencer Strider, who got beat twice. “I’m not a person that makes excuses. I think that the people trying to use the playoff format to make an excuse for the results they don’t like are not confronting the real issue. You’re in control of your focus, your competitiveness, your energy. And if having five days off (means) you can’t make that adjustment, you’ve got nobody to blame but yourself.
“If we truly want to win a World Series, if that’s our goal, then we’re going to have to change something or add something, in the way we prepare and the way that we focus.’’
The expanded postseason format, which gives the teams with the two best records in each league a first-round bye, is not changing. At least not for 2024. MLB will re-evaluate it after next season, but there likely won’t be any modifications until MLB expands to 32 teams.
Listen, 100-victory teams failing to reach the World Series is hardly a new phenomena.
There have been 43 teams who won 100 or more games in the wild-card era, but just five of those teams won the World Series, a mere 11.6% since 1995.
If you go back to 1980, there were 53 teams who have won 100 games, and just seven have won the World Series (13.2%).
Yet for those wanting to blame the system, three different GMs uttered the same refrain.
“Hey, if you want to give us a firstround bye for winning the wild-card next year," one NL GM said, “I’ll take it right now."
Certainly, the layoff had no effect on the defending World Series champion Astros. They badly wanted to win the division for the first-round bye, winning it on the final day of the season, and then knocked off the Twins, hitting .261 with 10 home runs. They got the bye last year, too, had another four days off after winning the ALCS, and cruised to the World Series title.
The key, Astros manager Dusty Baker says, may simply be mental: “We stayed locked in during the layoff.”