Inside our outlook for each Top 25 team

Another men’s basketball season is on the verge of tipping off with teams ready to start their four-month trek to reach the field of 68 in the NCAA men’s tournament on the first Monday in November. Before the games can begin, it’s time to sort out where the contenders stand with the release of the USA TODAY Sports preseason poll.

Last year there were several surprises in the postseason, including two teams making their first trip to the Final Four. Here are the 25 teams that will begin the 2023-24 campaign in the rankings with outlooks for each of them:

1. Kansas (29-10)

Points: 785 (23 first-place votes).

Last year’s final ranking: 11.

With the NCAA infractions investigation and, more important, coach Bill Self’s health scare now behind them, the Jayhawks enter the season as usual with lofty goals. The team’s lack of a true low-post presence was addressed in a big way with the arrival of Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson (18.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg). He should fit well in a loaded lineup that returns point guard Dajuan Harris Jr. (8.9 ppg, 6.2 apg) and double-digit scorers Kevin McCullar (10.7 ppg) and K.J. Adams (10.6 pgg).

2. Purdue (29-6)

Points: 742 (5 first-place votes). Last year’s final ranking: 13.

After becoming the second No. 1 seed to fall to a No. 16 seed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Matt Painter’s Boilermakers hope to duplicate the feat of the first such upset victim, Virginia, and end the subsequent season by cutting down the nets. The return of reigning player of the year Zach Edey (22.3 ppg, 12.9 rpg, 2.1 bpg) enhances that possibility. It also helps that the backcourt starters Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith are no longer freshmen.

3. Duke (27-9)

Points: 715 (3 first-place votes). Last year’s final ranking: 18.

In something of a departure from recent years, the Blue Devils return a wealth of experience. Seven-footer Kyle Filipowski (15.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and guard Tyrese Proctor (9.4 ppg) return as sophomores from last year’s touted recruiting class. Veteran floor general Jeremy Roach (13.6 ppg, 3.1 apg) and versatile forward Mark Mitchell (9.1 ppg) are also back. Coach Jon Scheyer brought in another solid freshman class, headed by sharpshooter Jared McCain.

4. Michigan State (21-13)

Points: 667. Last year’s final ranking:

20.

Tom Izzo’s Spartans haven’t reached the tournament’s final weekend since 2019, but this experienced bunch might be in a position to end that mini drought. Four regular starters are back, led by guards Tyson Walker (14.8 ppg) and A.J. Hoggard (12.9 ppg), as well as key reserve Malik Hall (9.0 ppg). Point guard Jeremy Fears and power forward Xavier Booker highlight MSU’s strong freshman class. Finding minutes for everyone is a good problem to have but could be a challenge nonetheless.

5. Connecticut (31-8)

Points: 626 (1 first-place vote). Last year’s final ranking: 1.

The cupboard isn’t exactly bare for the defending champion Huskies, but coach Dan Hurley has some key pieces to replace. The team figures to be built from the inside around big man Donovan Clingan, assuming he has recovered sufficiently from his foot injury to take on a larger workload. Tristen Newton (10.1 ppg) is the top returnee in the backcourt, and Alex Karaban, who stepped up in a big way during March Madness, also returns. Incoming freshman Stephon Castle and Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer should provide immediate scoring help on the perimeter.

6. Houston (33-4)

Points: 615. Last year’s final ranking: 13.

The Cougars, more established in the hardwood realm, should theoretically have an easier time adjusting to their new life in the Big 12 than their gridiron counterparts. The week-to-week competition level will increase, but Kelvin Sampson should have a strong nucleus ready for the challenge. It starts with veteran Jamal Shead (10.5 ppg, 5.4 apg) running the show. J’Wan Roberts (10.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg) will again establish the inside, and transfers L.J. Cryer (Baylor) and Damian Dunn (Temple) will be asked to step in immediately to replace a lot of production.

7. Marquette (29-7)

Points: 614. Last year’s final ranking: 14.

Despite a second-round NCAA tourney exit at the hands of Michigan State, Shaka Smart’s Golden Eagles enjoyed a terrific run in 2022-23 sweeping the Big East regular-season and tournament titles. Most key contributors from that squad return, with the notable exception of Olivier-Maxence Prosper who is now with the Dallas Mavericks. Kam Jones (15.1 ppg) and Tyler Kolek (12.9 ppg, 7.5 apg) form a dynamic backcourt duo, and Oso Ighodaro and David Joplin will anchor the interior.

8. Creighton (24-13)

Points: 552. Last year’s final ranking: 12.

The Bluejays should again be in the mix in the loaded Big East. Coach Greg McDermott returns his top three scorers in center Ryan Kalkbrenner (15.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and high-scoring wingers Trey Alexander (13.6) and Baylor Scheierman (12.8). The transfer portal giveth and taketh away as Ryan Nembhard and Arthur Kaluma departed for Gonzaga and Kansas State, respectively, but Steven Ashworth arrives from Utah State, where he put up 16.2 points per game, and Isaac Traudt comes in from Virginia.

9. Florida Atlantic (35-4)

Points: 548. Last year’s final ranking: 5.

The Owls look to follow up their seemingly out-of-nowhere run to the Final Four in their new home, departing Conference USA for the American Athletic. Coach Dusty May stuck around and convinced all of his key players to do the same. The entire starting lineup is back, led by guards Johnell Davis (13.8 ppg) and Alijah Martin (13.4 ppg) and postman Vladislav Goldin (10.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg). A more difficult schedule awaits after last year’s success, but this group looks capable of handling it.

10. Tennessee (25-11)

Points: 496. Last year’s final ranking: 16.

The unfortunate theme for the Volunteers recently has been success in the regular season followed by postseason disappointment. One of the reasons for last year’s exit against Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16 was a knee injury to point guard Zakai Zeigler before the tournament. His return to 100% at some point in the season will be critical as he provides needed play making and defense on the perimeter. Tennessee should again be one of the top defenses in the country. Scoring should come from veterans Santiago Vescovi (12.5 ppg) and Josiah-Jordan James (10.0 ppg), plus Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht.

11. Arizona (28-7)

Points: 449. Last year’s final ranking: 17.

It’s the third year for Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd, who has posted a 61-11 record and led the school to a Pac-12 regular-season title in 2022 and tournament championship last season. However, their postseason last year was cut short with a first-round loss to Princeton. Oumar Ballo (14.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and Pelle Larsson (9.9 ppg) return, and much will be expected from North Carolina transfer Caleb Love. Jaden Bradley, a five-star high school recruit, arrives after one season at Alabama and could be a factor.

12. Gonzaga (31-6)

Points: 407. Last year’s final ranking: 10.

This will be a year of transition for the Bulldogs with Drew Timme no longer manning the middle and expectations decreased with their lowest preseason poll position since 2017. Transfers will play a big role with Ryan Nembhard joining from Creighton after his brother’s departure finished his career with the Bulldogs last year. Anton Watson is the leading returning scorer (11.1 ppg). He’ll be expected to take on a leadership role with Nolan Hickman (7.7 ppg).

13. Miami (Fla.) (29-8)

Points: 390. Last year’s final ranking: 3.

It will be hard to top last season’s Final Four appearance – the second of coach Jim Larranaga’s career – but the Hurricanes do have the capability of again making a run. The inside-outside combination of Nijel Pack (13.6 ppg) and Norchad Omier (13.1 pgg, 10.0 rpg) will be one of the best tandems in the country. Bensley Joseph and Wooga Poplar were also key components and will have elevated roles this season. Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland should bring scoring and versatility.

14. Arkansas (22-14)

Points: 315. Last year’s final ranking:

21.

The Razorbacks were hit hard by NBA departures, but Eric Musselman has been here before and reloaded with some significant transfers. El Ellis (Arkansas), Tramon Mark (Houston) and Khalif Battle (Temple) arrive to join Devo Davis (10.9 ppg) and Makhi Mitchell. Trevon Brazile’s return from a knee injury will help bolster the frontcourt.

15. San Diego State (32-7)

Points: 277. Last year’s final ranking:

2.

Darrion Trammell (9.8 ppg), Lamont Butler (8.8 ppg) and Keshad Johnson (7.7 ppg) all were starters on last year’s squad that reached the national title game. They’ll be joined by key reserves Micah Parrish and Jason LeDee to give the Aztecs plenty of experience to make another run. The bench should get a boost from Southern Cal transfer Reese Waters, who was the Pac-12 sixth man of the year last season.

16. Kentucky (22-12)

Points: 261. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

The Wildcats again enter with high expectations even though they’ve won just one tournament game in the past four seasons. Per usual, there will be major turnover with elite recruits leaving and departing under John Calipari. Big man Zvonimir Ivisic from Croatia was a late addition to an outstanding freshman class that also includes fivestar prospects Aaron Bradshaw, Justin Edwards and Dajuan Wagner. One person unexpectedly back to join them is Antonio Reeves (14.4 ppg), a potential conference player of the year candidate. West Virginia transfer Tre Mitchell also should bring needed experience.

17. Baylor (23-11)

Points: 258. Last year’s final ranking:

19.

It will be an entirely new backcourt for the Bears, who will be looking to contend in the Big 12 after taking a step back last season. RayJ Dennis, the MAC player of the year, arrives from Toledo with Jayden Nunn from Virginia Commonwealth. There’s a pair of incoming freshmen who should provide impact, Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi, both fivestar recruits. Their integration will take some time, so there might be some early bumps. Helping will be veterans Jalen Bridges (10.3 ppg) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, the last member left from the 2021 national title team.

18. Texas (29-9)

Points: 251. Last year’s final ranking: 7.

Former interim coach Rodney Terry earned the full-time job after leading Texas to the Big 12 tournament title and the program’s first Elite Eight bid in over a decade. Guard Tyrese Hunter (10.3 ppg, 2.5 apg) and forwards Dylan Disu (8.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and Dillon Mitchell (4.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) return, with Disu looking to pick up where he left off following a very strong tournament. The Longhorns also added several transfers to add depth and strength on the defensive end, including reigning WAC freshman of the year Chendall Weaver from Texas-Arlington.

19. Texas A&M (25-10)

Points: 231. Last year’s final ranking: 25.

The Aggies were one of the hottest teams in the country when they were bounced in the opening round of last year’s tournament. An experienced team will be motivated to make a deeper push into March. The backcourt is in very good hands between Wade Taylor IV (16.3 ppg) and Tyrece Radford (13.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) while the frontcourt should get a boost from Massachusetts transfer Wildens Leveque. After back-to-back appearances in the SEC tournament title game, A&M could be poised for a leap forward under coach Buzz Williams.

20. Villanova (17-17)

Points: 217. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

After a rough start under Kyle Neptune, Villanova has the talent to contend for the Big East crown and make a tournament run. The offense will center on forward Eric Dixon (15.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg), a talented big with a deft touch from the line (79.2%) and from deep (37.8%). Justin Moore (13.5 ppg) will be available from the start of the season after missing much of last year with an Achilles injury. The Wildcats will lean on three graduate transfers to bring the sort of experience this team needs to bounce back: Tyler Burton from Richmond, Hakim Hart from Maryland and T.J. Bamba (15.8 ppg) from Washington State.

21. North Carolina (20-13)

Points: Last year’s final ranking:

197.

Not ranked.

There may be no program with more to prove after opening last season No. 1 but missing the tournament. There is a strong foundation in seniors RJ Davis (16.1 ppg) and Armando Bacot (15.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg), with Bacot an All-American contender after opting into his fifth season of eligibility. But how far the Tar Heels advance into March could hinge on the play of five-star true freshman guard Elliot Cadeau, who should step right into the starting lineup and immediately boost an offense that struggled moving the ball in 2022-23.

22. Southern Cal (22-11)

Points: 176. Last year’s final ranking: Not ranked.

This has the makings of Andy Enfield’s best team at USC. Leading scorer Boogie Ellis (17.7 ppg) is one of three returning starters. The Trojans bring in a strong recruiting class headlined by point guard Isaiah Collier, an immediate starter and potential first-round draft pick; the status of Bronny James is in flux after he went into cardiac arrest while practicing this summer. Washington State transfer DJ Rodman will step into a role in the frontcourt alongside senior Joshua Morgan (5.2 rpg) and sophomore Vince Iwuchukwu (5.4 ppg).

23. Saint Mary’s (27-8)

Points: 147. Last year’s final ranking:

22.

Saint Mary’s is in prime position to become the first team other than Gonzaga to capture the outright West Coast title since 2011-12. The Gaels have the league’s best player in Aidan Mahaney (13.9 ppg), an All-American candidate who will pick up an even bigger chunk of the scoring load. Coach Randy Bennett can surround Mahaney with veterans Alex Ducas (12.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg), Mitchell Saxen (11.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and Augustas Marciulionis (5.9 ppg). this team is built to reach the Sweet 16 for the third time.

24. Alabama (31-6)

Points: 142. Last year’s final ranking: 4.

With just one returning starter and three players overall from last year’s roster, the defending SEC champs will have a wildly different look. Guard Mark Sears (12.5 ppg, 2.6 apg) will have to carry a heavy load as Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide break in a new cast that includes four freshmen and an impressive list of transfers, including forward Grant Nelson (North Dakota State) and guards Latrell Wrightsell Jr. (Cal-State Fullerton) and Aaron Estrada (Hofstra). Nelson (17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) is a differencemaking big man.

25. UCLA (31-6)

Points: 52. Last year’s final ranking: 8

Losing multiple key players behind back-to-back Sweet 16 berths has left UCLA behind the front of the class in the Pac-12 and in need of a major boost from a recruiting class with a very international feel. With Pac-12 Freshman of the Year Adem Bona (7.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) as the centerpiece, the Bruins will add in 7foot-3 center Aday Mara, 6-9 forward Berke Buyuktuncel and 6-5 guard Ilane Fibleuil to try to remain among the stingiest defenses in the country. The issue could be scoring. Who steps up with last year’s top five scorers all gone?