Good news for GOP: Rainy fore­cast on Elec­tion Day

USA TODAY Weekend Extra - - NEWS - Doyle Rice

A pow­er­house storm is fore­cast to soak a large part of the Mid­west and South next Tues­day, Elec­tion Day.

This could in­flu­ence the out­come of the elec­tions: A re­cent study found that Repub­li­can can­di­dates tend to have a slight ad­van­tage when it rains.

Tues­day’s Elec­tion Day storm could fea­ture wind-driven rain in the Great Lakes as well as rain and strong thun­der­storms from the Ohio Val­ley to parts of the South, the Weather Chan­nel said. Some wet snow – or rain chang­ing to snow – is pos­si­ble in parts of the up­per Mid­west.

Storms are fore­cast in some of the key bat­tle­ground states for sen­a­tors and gov­er­nors, in­clud­ing West Vir­ginia, Ohio, In­di­ana, Michi­gan, Ten­nessee, Mis­sis­sippi and Ge­or­gia.

In con­trast to the East, weather in the West should be nice, AccuWeather said. Other than some pesky show­ers in Wash­ing­ton and Ore­gon, the weather is ex­pected to be mostly dry for folks head­ing out to vote.

Most of Florida and the South­east coast will be quite warm and dry.

One other trou­ble spot: Parts of the north­ern Rockies and high Plains could see some light snow that could make for slick roads on the way to the polls, the Weather Chan­nel warned.

So why does rain fa­vor Repub­li­cans? Find­ings from the study re­vealed that at least 1 per­cent of vot­ing age adults in the U.S. – peo­ple who would have voted for a Demo­crat had the weather been good – de­cided in­stead to cast their bal­lot for a Repub­li­can on rainy elec­tion days.

“Our study sug­gests that weather con­di­tions may af­fect peo­ple’s de­ci­sions on not only whether to vote but also who they vote for,” said study coau­thor Yusaku Ho­ri­uchi, a pro­fes­sor of gov­ern­ment at Dart­mouth Col­lege. The study ap­peared in the jour­nal Amer­i­can Pol­i­tics Re­search.

“Con­trary to the widely shared be­lief that weather con­di­tions do not change vot­ers’ elec­toral de­ci­sions,” the study said, “our anal­y­sis sug­gests that it is likely that a cer­tain pro­por­tion of Amer­i­can vot­ers would change their party pref­er­ence de­pend­ing on weather.”

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from USA

© PressReader. All rights reserved.