Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
I was picking up my girl scout cookie order from my nieces when they wanted to show uncle Tom their new room in the basement. They were at the age that bunk beds weren’t cool anymore and they couldn’t wait to have their own rooms. I told my sister that they couldn’t be sleeping down there until you get an egress window cut out. This was in early March and she stated they will dig it out in the spring. The very next day, they experienced a house fire that started in the garage. In what can only be described as a guardian angel moment, the fire occurred during daytime hours and everybody got out safely. Fast forward four years and my other sisters’ boys are getting to the age where bunk beds aren’t cool anymore. In a history repeats itself moment, my nephews were bragging to uncle Tom that they were getting a new room in the basement. Fortunately, this brother-in-law was a better planner and we were able to get one of two planned egress windows completed before the ground froze. My sister purchasing the windows and materials and being persistent certainly had alot to do with it.
As I celebrate Thanksgiving this year, I am thankful that my nephews are starting to gain that first independence with their own rooms like my nieces did a few years ago. I am thankful for the guy who invented the mini-excavator and the guy who invented the cement saw. I’m also thankful for the guy who invented plastic sheeting and the guy who invented the shop vac to clean up all that cement dust. I’m also thankful that someone came up with the invention of double paned windows and egress window wells. Most of all, I’m thankful for my cousin John Jr. and all carpenters out there who have the skills to do these improvement projects. If you have ever considered installing egress windows on your property, just do it. You will be thankful you did. My sister and her boys sure are. Happy Thanksgiving!
The live cattle and feeder cattle traded higher after smaller on feed numbers from the monthly Cattle on Feed Report. The report showed 11.706 million head on feed for feedlots over 1,000 head capacity as of November 1st. This was 98.0% of last year vs. estimates of 98.3%. Placements for October were 93.9% vs. estimates of 96.3%. Marketings were at 100.6% vs. estimates of 100.8%. Cash prices were mostly steady to start the week and boxed beef prices were mixed. The October number of cattle placed into feedlots were much lower than expected at 93.9% vs. pre-report estimates of 96.3% of last year. This led to sharp gains in the feeder cattle complex and a close above resistance levels of the $4.00 range we have been trading in for the past month. Fall 2023 feeder cattle contracts have surpassed $2.00 pointing to tightening supplies ahead.
The lean hog complex saw new contract highs in the summer of 2023 contracts hit last week. New highs were posted with expectations of more demand from China next year. Additional support came from the recent strength in pork cutout values. Weights also remain well below the five-year average. Pork production was also down 3.1% last week compared to one year ago. USDA reported weekly hog slaughter at 2,605,000 head, up from 2,500,000 head last week and down from 2,632,000 head one year ago. Year to date slaughter is down 2.9% from one year ago.
Weekly winter wheat conditions were steady from last week at 32% good to excellent, 35% fair and 33% poor to very poor. Kansas was steady at 24% g/e, Oklahoma improved 4% to 23% g/e and Texas improved 1% to 19% g/e. 86% of winter wheat is emerged vs. 86% average.
IKAR thinks Russia will export 44 MMT of wheat this year, up 2.0 MMT from a previous estimate and consistent with private estimates last week after the export corridor agreement was reached. The Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina wheat export estimates by 0.5 MMT citing a poorer crop due to dry weather. Argentina’s government estimates a 13.4 MMT wheat crop which is down -39.0% from last year (a disaster crop). Last week, the International Grains Council reduced Argentina 4.5 MMT to 13.0 MMT.
The National Weather Service is forecasting that the LaNina pattern will continue for December through February. This pattern is warmer and drier for the southern plains, colder and wetter for the northern plains and average temperatures and wetter for the eastern corn belt and soft red wheat belt. The Weekly US Drought Monitor map shows large portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and northern Montana rated D3 Extreme and D4 Exceptional. Forecasts improved chances of rainfall for the Texas panhandle, most of Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas in the coming week. The 8 to 14 day also shows decent chances for Oklahoma.
Weather forecasts for SAM show normal temperatures and rainfall for Brazil, which is a favorable forecast. Northern Argentina hooked light rainfall over the weekend and the 8 to 14 day shows decent chances. Argentina badly needs this system to hit as late November rainfall will be crucial to limit further crop deterioration.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.