Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
After the devasting ice storm event in late December 2023, one of my neighbors stated that “We’ll be hauling broken tree branches to the city tree dump for the next two years.” It’s a good thing community volunteers got a jump on it over the New Years weekend cleaning streets and boulevards that were littered with branches. Over 40 farm truck loads of debris were hauled away making quite a spectacle of the local tree dump. But that was just the tip of the iceberg. It’s also a good thing that I purchased an old cheap but in good condition 1987 Dodge Dakota with a long box about a month before the ice storm. I will let that thing take all the branch scratches whenever I’m not in the mood to hook up a trailer. My blue F-150 or as my daughter calls it Babe the Blue Ox, will be saved from further scratches to her hide. My timing on buying a beater could not have been any better. As I was helping a couple retired neighbors clean up their yards this weekend, we should have kept count of all the trucks and trailers passing by loaded with branch debris. I told both those neighbors that judging by the looks of it, you Norwegians are lucky that I upgraded my top-of-the-line Swedish chainsaw last year. Here’s to hoping that my good timing continues in 2024 and here’s to hoping for a good timely rainfall this week, so the fire department can start burning.
The monthly WASDE report did cut US corn ending stocks but not as much as expected. 2023-24 US ending stocks are projected at 2.122 billion bushels, a 50 million bushel decrease from the March report. Ethanol and feed & residual use both increased 25 mb. Exports were unchanged. 202324 World ending stocks also decreased, but not as much as anticipated. USDA estimates 318.28 MMT of carryout vs. pre-report expectations of 317.1 MMT. Argentina production was cut 1.0 MMT to 55.0 MMT. Brazil production remained unchanged at 124.0 MMT which was bearish since a 2.0 MMT cut was expected. USDA also left Ukraine production unchanged at 29.5 MMT. The USDA numbers are much higher than official releases from South America prior to the report. Conab released Brazil corn production estimates at 110.96 MMT roughly 2.0 MMT less than the previous month. The Rosario Grain Exchange cut Argentina corn production 6.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered Argentina’s corn crop to 49.5 MMT, citing damage from the Spiroplasma bacteria.
US soybean ending stocks are up 25 million bushels to 340 million bushels. This was above the trade’s estimates for an increase of 4 million bushels to 319 million bushels. Brazil and Argentina soybean production estimates were unchanged from the March report at 155 MMT and 50 MMT respectfully. The trade was expecting a cut of almost 3.5 MMT for Brazil, from 155 MMT down to 151.7 MMT. The USDA and Conab see a huge difference in their Brazilian estimates, with the USDA’s estimate for soybeans 5.8% above Conab’s, the largest difference in 10+ years. Conab sees Brazil’s production at 146.5 MMT, down from 146.86 MMT last month. Safras Mercado raised their 23/24 Brazil soybean production forecast 2.65 MMT over previous outlook to 151.25 MMT.
The monthly WASDE report showed US wheat stocks increasing 25 million bushels to 698 mb. This was 13 mb higher than expectations. 30 million bushels were cut from feed and residual use which would make sense with cheaper and abundant corn supplies. World stocks were estimated at 258.3 MMT near expectations and slightly lower than March. Russian stocks were unchanged at 12.44 MMT while Ukraine declined 1.7 MMT to 1.58 MMT. In South America, Argentina wheat stocks increased 2.82 MMT while Brazil decreased slightly to 1.0 MMT. The Indian Flour Millers Association estimates the wheat crop 6.25% lower than an official government estimate. Another report stated that India will buy roughly 6.0 MMT more wheat than it did last year.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.