Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. A couple of my neighbors were wondering why I wasn’t spending much time in the mild winter cutting trees up after the ice storm. My response was that my chainsaw blades get too dull too fast in the ice and the snow and that it can wait until spring. Little did they know I chose the winter to sharpen my pencil rather than my chainsaw blades and look for some grant opportunities. I learned a few things along the way. The North Dakota Forestry Service has a Tree Inventory Planning Tool or as they call it ND TIP Tool. I would encourage anyone to online search ND TIP Tool or www.ag.ndsu.edu/fss/ndfs/ndtip-tool . You can look up tree species along boulevards and public park areas if your city has participated. ND TIP Tool pointed out that over 43% of the trees in our town are green ash and that the town to our east is over 76% green ash. Forestry personnel stated that Emerald Ash Borer is creeping into our area and it will be much like the Dutch Elm Disease that plagued us when I was young. The comment that resonated with me was that many small towns are not adequately prepared for the biological mess that’s coming.
Since our city park and school grounds are over 90% green ash that was the logical way to go. As writing grants goes this one came together very nicely with the cooperation of the local park board, the school administration and the city council to clean up the firehall grounds. I also met a couple great young family men during the process of getting bids. One in the tree removal business and one who is building up a tree nursery business as we needed bids for replacing trees on a oneto-one basis. So even though I was reminded that writing grants is about as much fun as doing income taxes, it was well worth the effort, and I made the deadline. Now for that income tax extension I had to file….
Argentina’s corn crop is also running into some biological problems. Private forecaster Cordonnier dropped Argentine corn production estimates to 50.0 MMT, also lowering yield estimates due to disease pressure. USDA was at 55.0 MMT in the April WASDE report. According to Reuters, Argentina’s corn harvest, already cut sharply due a stunt disease spread by leafhopper insects, was “likely” to be slashed significantly further, a Rosario grains exchange analyst said on Wednesday. Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario Stock Exchange, added that severe cases of leafhoppers, which thrive in humid and warm conditions, were also being seen in regions where they usually did not appear, a reflection of the unusual nature of this year’s damaging outbreak.
2024 combined Brazil and Argentina production is expected to come in around 170 MMT vs 173 MMT last year. Mato Grosso which grows more than 40% of the Brazil’s Safrinha corn, is looking at a very nice crop, even with rains stopping early. 70% of Safrinha corn is in good/excellent condition, with 30% average/ poor. Parana & parts of Mato Grosso do Sul & Goiás struggled with lack of rain. Estimates see Brazil production is likely around 117125 MMT for now (1220 MMT less than last year). Argentina corn production is expected between 48-53 MMT, but is expected to drop due to pest and disease problems.
Soybean crush is still supportive, but the trade is focusing on the decent crop in South America and plenty of soybean acres expected to be planted in the US. The market is trying to absorb heavy selling pressure from Brazilian farmers in the past week fueled by a drop in the Brazilian Real to a 13 month low. Port bids between Brazil and US ports is tightening up, but favors Brazil soybeans during the seasonal time of year it usually does. In the past three weeks, the Brazilian Real has fallen by about 4.6%. A weaker Brazilian real cheapens exports coming from Brazil. July soybeans on the Dalian exchange fell 1.8% to their lowest close in a month, the U.S. equivalent of $14.06 a bushel. Not supportive after we finally saw some flash export sales last week.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.