Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
My girl has really enjoyed participating in the spring volleyball Valley City JO League. She is definitely her dad’s girl as she doesn’t care much for basketball. She’s met a few new friends through the league and made some good memories the past couple months. I’ve learned where a few of the athletic complexes are located on the University of Jamestown campus and I’ve made a few memories myself. The two that jump to the top are when five 11-12 year old girls sang happy birthday to me on the drive back from practice one fine Tuesday evening in March. The other was a weekend afternoon when a majority of her team were hanging out at her friends house. They wanted to get some ice cream at the truck stop that hot Saturday afternoon in April. They all jumped in the back of my 1987 Dodge Dakota and there we were trekking the 5 blocks through town at 10 mph. As I pulled into the truck stop a gentleman was smiling as the girls jumped out of the truck bed. To amplify the situation, I said that in the future I would have to teach you girls what a Chinese Fire Drill is. We both laughed when the girls were asking “what’s a Chinese Fire Drill?” As we loaded up with ice cream and were returning to the east side of town, I thought for sure that patrolman was going to pull me over. Fortunately, the prom was going on and I only paid for the ice cream that day.
Wheat futures saw a 7th consecutive session of gains to close out the week showing the highest weekly gain in over two years. A big drop in winter wheat condition ratings led the rally. Funds were forced to short cover their heavy short positions as technical buying drove all three complexes through their 100-day moving averages. For the past 8 months, 100-day moving averages served as heavy resistance. The market is concerned about dryness persisting in southern Russia and the US southern plains. Western Kansas missed out on meaningful rainfall over the weekend. Russia’s state weather forecaster stated the threat of drought will likely persist through May in the eastern half of the southern federal district, a key region for wheat production. The area closer to Ukraine is expected to experience normal conditions. Russia has seeded 0.6 million hectares of spring wheat compared to 1.0 million at this time last year.
US winter wheat condition ratings have declined 7% in the past three weeks. Weekly winter wheat conditions ending April 28th declined 1% to 49% good to excellent, 35% fair and 16% poor to very poor. States showing declines were Kansas -5% to 31% g/e, Colorado -5% to 46% g/e, Oklahoma -3% to 46% g/e and Montana -9% to 43% g/e. A few states showing improvements included Texas +2% to 48% g/e, Washington +8% to 56% g/e, Illinois +4% to 87% g/e and South Dakota +4% to 67% g/e. 30% of the winter wheat crop is headed vs. 21% normal.
US spring plantings are off to a rapid start in 2024 which typically points to higher yield potential. Spring wheat plantings are at 34% complete vs. 19% normal and emergence is at 5% vs. 5% normal. Trade was expecting planting progress at 27% complete. Barley plantings are 6% ahead of normal at 35%. Oats plantings are 12% ahead of normal at 63%. Corn plantings are 5% ahead of normal at 27% and soybeans are 8% ahead of normal at 18%.
Past 72-hour rainfall maps show good 1 to 4 inch rainfall for the eastern portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Western Kansas missed out on any meaningful rain. Central and eastern South Dakota and west central North Dakota received 1 to 2 inches. Both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks show much warmer than normal conditions for the southern plains. The northern plains shows better rainfall chances in the 8 to 14 day timeframe.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.