ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever” Olivia Rodrigo, “Sour” Taylor Swift, “Evermore” Lil Nas X, “Montero” Drake, “Certified Lover Boy” Kacey Musgraves, “Star-crossed” Doja Cat, “Planet Her” Justin Bieber, “Justice” Chris Stapleton, “Starting Over” H.E.R., “Back of My Mind”
Worth noting off the bat: all the previous three winners for album of the year — Musgraves, Eilish and Swift — have an album in contention this year. Of those three, Musgraves may face the toughest odds in returning, just because the divorce-themed “Star-crossed” is not the feel-good favorite that ’s “Golden Hour” was, but the acclaim for it still augurs for a nomination. Swift won just last year, for an album seen as a twin sister to the new one, so it’s hard to know if she’ll ride that wave or voters might think it’s too soon to give her a repeat. There’s a false trope going around that Eilish’s sophomore album is a commercial disappointment, yet it hasn’t left the top since it was released in July; don’t underestimate its legs.
Rodrigo being among the two or three front-runners is a no-brainer. What remains to be seen is whether the rest of the field will favor the
Halsey could be the biggest victim of the switch to a popular vote, with a brilliant album that could be forgotten after a too-quick chart descent.
kind of pop blockbusters that might otherwise have been nixed by a blue-ribbon committee. Drake’s album, whose mixed reviews might have kept it from making the cut in a committee year, seems likely to get in now that we have a popular vote; if every Academy member who knows one of the producers votes for it, it’s a cinch for a nom. Doja Cat and Justin Bieber will also have their odds increase if the new process favors actual hits. H.E.R. is a question mark; she was nominated twice already for albums that were really compilations, so she’d seem a shoo-in for her actual full-length debut, yet it didn’t make as much noise as expected commercially.
As for Morgan Wallen — the success story of the year, despite his scandal — some Nashville peeps have said they’ll vote for it, yet it’s the Academy that would be scandalized if it got in. And most in the country community would rather have Chris Stapleton as their awards-show face. Meanwhile, Halsey may be the biggest victim of the switch to a popular vote, with a brilliant album that could be forgotten after a too-quick chart descent.