Do You Get Déjà Vu?
The 2023 Grammy nominations — announced on Nov. 15 — are as unpredictable as ever, but one race is certain to return: Beyoncé vs. Adele
When it comes to the 2023 Grammys, it’s easy to jump ahead and look at what we expect will be the final showdown on Feb. 3 between the top two competitors — Adele and Beyoncé. Because, yes, in the top three general categories, it’s likely to be a narrow contest that runs the gamut from A to B, as it were … almost a direct sequel to the 2017 Grammy race, which “25” was pitted against “Lemonade.” The big question may be, will this movie have the same ending, with Adele apologizing to Bey for besting her — again? Of course, there’s a lot of road to travel before then and considerable suspense over which other eight artists will fill out the 10 available slots in the album, record and song of the year categories. And the one major category in which absolutely nothing is a given and there are no clear front-runners is best new artist. With Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo as foregone conclusions for that honor in recent years, it’s slightly refreshing to return to a time in which it’s hard to say for sure that anybody is even a lock for that category, let alone a winin ner that can be called before the initial nominees have even been voted on yet. Predicting anything having to do with new artist is not as easy as A-B-C — with apologies to Gayle, who could go on to win the whole thing or not even get nominated on Nov. 15, in as unpredictable a year as this. First-round voting on the thousands of candidates on the initial ballot takes place Oct. 13-23, so expect a lot of official or covert FYC campaigning right before America’s midterms. Then we’ll find out who’ll really be having a happy Thanksgiving, and/or gearing up for further psychological battle, when the nominations are revealed Nov. 15. In the top three categories, it’s Adele and Beyoncé’s world and everybody else is eating popcorn in it. A photo finish between those two looks especially likely in the album division, but if anyone is going to be a spoiler taking advantage of that split vote, it’s likely to be Silk Sonic, who won both record and song of the year last time and may come back to clean up in the one category they weren’t yet eligible in. Factoring against them: The album is basically an EP. The ubiquitous Styles could be a behemoth dark horse, too. It won’t be Lamar’s year to win, with a little more division over “Mr. Morale” than previous efforts that had universal acclaim and really looked like front-runners, but there’s no way he isn’t getting nominated. Likewise for
Lizzo, whose very strong album was weaker commercially but is assured a place in this firmament as well. “Encanto” is a big question mark — the Grammys have virtually no history of having any love for musical-comedy song scores, as opposed to more randomly assembled pop soundtracks — but odds are they give Lin-manuel Miranda at least a token of affection after grossly snubbing “Hamilton.” The big question on the nominations front may be whether there’s room for two Spanish-language albums in a category that has traditionally recognized only none at a time. Bad Bunny is the commercial King Kong of 2022, and thus seems a shoo-in, even though it’s hard to make that guarantee — there has not been a predominantly foreign-language album nominated in the category since “The 3 Tenors in Concert 1994” (!!). If we’re going to take it as a given he will jump in, can we also imagine that the Academy could make room for two and throw Rosalía’s acclaimed but notquite-blockbuster album into a slot as well? That’s the biggest limb we’re going out on here, although, with Recording Academy CEO Harvey Mason Jr. having boasted that 47% of this year’s nearly 2,000 new voting members are people of color, it may be time to stop basing predictions on past results. While being well-aware of the distinction between record and
The top three general categories are likely to be a narrow contest that runs the gamut from A to B, as it were … almost a direct sequel to the 2017 Grammy race, in which “25” was pitted against “Lemonade.” The big question may be, will this movie have the same ending, with Adele apologizing to Bey for besting her — again?
song — to put it simply, honor the production as a whole vs. primarily the songwriting — there’s so much overlap, usually, in the nominees that we’re not sure voters always take note. In any case, we’ll consider them together here. Again, it looks like Adele vs. Beyoncé as the leaders — and there’ll be more to say on those two after the nominations arrive in next month. Styles’ “As It Was” can by no means be completely counted out here, especially considering it broke some Billboard Hot 100 records that neither of the front-running women could. Voters will just have to consider whether they think he should share the nomination and possible win with a-ha, given the retro-synth feel of the tune. Doja Cat is among those with songs eligible this year after previously being in contention on the same cycles. “Woman” hit the top of the pop charts this year — Doja Cat’s third trip to this lofty height with a single from her album “Planet Her.” There are big question marks around “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” and Swift’s “All Too Well” expansion/remake. A character-driven comedy song may just be a bridge too far for voters, even if it was the pre-bunny musical phenomenon of the year, and even if Miranda is owed. Swift is believed to be submitting both “All Too Well” and the album it’s from, after not having done the same with her previous re-record of “Fearless.” The album itself may still be a longer shot, but “All Too Well,” as a song that recaptures the popular imagination in a huge way many years after its release, seems like too good a story for the Academy to sleep on. Maybe. It’s anyone’s guess how most of these noms will go. There’s a little bit of guesswork involved, actually, in even determining who the Recording Academy will deem eligible, since the rules have been malleable and it’s not as clear as it used to be how many years or projects artists can have under their belts and be “new.” Like, after being snubbed for a new artist nom last year, is Maneskin still fresh-faced enough to get in, or seen as grizzled veterans? R&B is fielding plenty of contenders, including recent Hot 100 leader Steve Lacy, if his previous nom in an urban category doesn’t bounce him out. Country’s Zach Bryan had one of the runaway freshman successes of the year, but with him being a country artist who bypassed the mainstream system, it remains to be seen whether the Nashville bloc roots for him as one of their own. Is Gayle seen as too lightweight to win, given the Academy’s desire to coronate acts who look like they have decades ahead of them? In a year with nothing resembling a front-runner, she can’t be counted (or alphabetized) out.