DGA Awards Play Oscar Predictor
The DGA will present numerous trophies at its 76th annual ceremony on Feb. 10. But coming in the thick of the Oscar race, the most attention — in the media and the industry — will likely be on the award for directorial achievement in theatrical feature film. Especially since the DGA has been a reasonably reliable barometer in the past for Oscar.
In the last decade, the DGA winner has also won Oscar’s director statuette every time, except for 2020, when Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”) bested DGA winner Sam Mendes (“1917”). In fact, only 10 times in the history of the DGA Awards have there been two different winners.
The nomination voting deadline is Jan. 9, and final ballots for that trophy are due Feb. 9. (Dates for the other categories vary.) Here is a look at the expected contenders in some of the major DGA Award categories.
Feature Film and First-time Filmmaker
The guild does not have a discernible preference for picking old favorites or first-time nominees as winners: In the last seven years, there have been three of the former (Jane Campion, Sam Mendes, Alfonso Cuarón) and four of the latter (Daniel Scheinert & Daniel Kwan, Chloé Zhao, Guillermo del Toro, Damien Chazelle).
Steven Spielberg has run up his record for most nominations with entries in each of the last two years, but it’s not like his absence completely clears the field for young blood. The heavy favorite in this category is Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), who has already been nominated four times before. If he somehow falters the win would likely go to Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), who is at least a shoo-in for his 11th nomination, leaving him just two behind Spielberg.
Beyond those three-hour epics, the race is much more fluid, with Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”) likely to grab her second nomination and Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) a strong candidate for his, with two-time nominee Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”), Michael Mann (seeking his second
for “Ferrari”), Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”), Jonathan Glazer (“Zone of Interest”), Ava Duvernay (“Origin”) and Todd Haynes (“May December”) also in the mix.
Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”) and Celine Song (“Past Lives”) are also worthy contenders for the main event, but they’ll also be duking it out in the first-timer category, where they are two of the top three candidates for an award previously won by the likes of Jordan Peele, Darius Marder and Maggie Gyllenhaal. In addition to Jefferson and Song, another who should earn a nom and could compete for the prize is A.V. Rockwell for “A Thousand and One.”
Raven Jackson (“All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt”) and Chloe Domont (“Fair Play”) are also contenders.
Documentary Film
Documentary categories are notoriously hard to predict, and the DGA Award has overlapped with the Oscar winner only once since 2017. Still, the pedigree of “American Symphony” makes it tough to argue against. Director Matthew Heineman is one of only three doc directors with two DGA wins (and he has three nominations, so a fourth would tie him with Steve James). The subject, Jon Bastiste, is an Oscar-winner and extremely popular and the movie comes from the same folks who put forth a recent DGA and Oscar- winner “American Factory” — Netflix and Higher Ground, founded by Barack and Michelle Obama.
Movies for Television and Limited Series
While there’s no clear-cut favorite as there were in recent years with Scott Frank for “The Queen's Gambit,” Barry Jenkins for “The Underground Railroad” and Helen Shaver for “Station Eleven,” limited series should still dominate here over movies, with such leading candidates as “Beef,” “I’m a Virgo,” “Dead Ringers,” “Murder at the End of The World” and “The Fall of the House of Usher.”
Dramatic Series
“Succession” won twice and was nominated in each of its first three seasons, capturing all five slots in a remarkable show of force in its third season. It’s a lock for at least one slot and it’s hard to imagine anyone but those who brought the Roy family to snarling, snarky life snatching the prize. Another clean sweep, while unlikely, would also propel the show into second place for most nominations ever (past seven shows that all ran much longer).
With “Better Call Saul” and “Ozark” out of business and “Severance” (which had two nominations last year) and “Euphoria” delayed by the writers strike, no show from 2022 will compete. So, the question may not be what other shows will get nominated but how many “Succession” will grab. If it leaves behind any crumbs, expect “The Last of Us” to scoop them up.
Comedic Series
The DGA and WGA most obviously part ways when it comes to comedic series. “Reservation Dogs” was nominated for its writing in each of its first two seasons but made no impression on the DGA, so it’s unclear if it’s final go-round will earn a nom.
“The Bear” won a WGA Award last year but had to settle for a nomination with the DGA, though this year’s “Fishes,” a star-studded Christmas mauling of the entire family that ran twice as long as most episodes, could carry it to the top.
But the favorites have to be two shows that the DGA have long been enamored with and that bid farewell in 2023: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” has racked up seven DGA nominations so far, two behind all-time tops “Seinfeld,” “Frasier” and “30 Rock.” The front-runner, however, is probably, “Barry.” The star and director Bill Hader has won the award in each of the show’s first three seasons and while the fourth season was light on laughs, it was just as strong directorially as its predecessors. ⚫