New Globes Era Brings Uncertain Forecast

Will the revamped group follow the herd to ‘Barbenheimer’ or go its own way?

Which movie will rule the Globes?

Predicting the best picture winner at the Oscars is akin to forecasting a storm approaching land, with any shifts in its trajectory likely altering its destination. No such weather patterns exist for the revamped Golden Globes: Given that the group is embracing a new network (CBS), an untested host (Jo Koy) and 300 voting members worldwide, the Jan. 7 ceremony could be one of the most surprising in its history.

The industry tends to anoint a presumed Oscar juggernaut. On one hand, the Globes might further cement a “Barbenheimer” Oscar battle by awarding Greta Gerwig’s toy-doll comedy and Christopher Nolan’s atomic bomb creation drama best picture in their respective categories. And although the group divides best picture and the lead acting performances by genre, the two blockbusters are set to face off in three races: director, screenplay and supporting actor (Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling). Nolan is poised to take directing honors, while “Barbie” could land prizes for its screenplay and Gosling.

On the other hand, the Globes are notorious for going their own way. Should the group choose not to think along “Barbenheimer” lines, that could benefit two competitors: Martin Scorsese’s crime thriller “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Yorgos Lanthimos’ fantastical sci-fi riot “Poor Things.”

Although this season has felt like Nolan’s to lose, Scorsese just might be the spoiler in the Globes’ directing derby with “Killers of the Flower Moon.” His track record here is strong, with three previous wins for “Gangs of New York” (2002), “The Departed” (2006) and “Hugo” (2011).

Meanwhile, in the lead acting races, a consensus hasn’t emerged from the awards chatter. Bradley Cooper’s transformation into conductor and composer Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro” has received raves from critics; so, too, co-star Carey Mulligan’s sparkling turn as Bernstein’s wife, Felicia Montealegre. However, aside from Cooper’s win at the Las Vegas Film Critics Society Awards, neither has landed any precursors. They might form a “package deal” on voters’ final ballots, but a safer bet is sticking with the two performers leading in critics’ prizes: Cillian Murphy of “Oppenheimer” and Lily Gladstone of “Flower Moon.”

On the comedy side, actors playing characters with eerie similarities are vying to be crowned.

In “American Fiction” and “The Holdovers,” respective leads Jeffrey Wright and Paul Giamatti portray educators aspiring to be writers. And in “Barbie” and “Poor Things,” Margot Robbie and Emma Stone play women becoming both self-aware and aware of the outside world. Who among these will appeal to Globe voters’ sensibilities? I say the previous winners of their categories, Giamatti (“Barney’s Version”) and Stone (“La La Land”), add one gold statue to their collection.

Then again, as the Globes enter a new era, we’ll need more than a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Variety parent company PMC owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge.