Our Last, Best Guess
Final Oscar nomination predictions as a fiercely competitive awards season reaches a pivotal moment
Oscar nominations are upon us: Expect the unexpected.
Every year, Oscar voters prove awards prognosticating is more of an art than a science. There’s always someone whose morning is ruined when noms are announced, and a fair number who didn’t expect to be popping Champagne. So what surprises are in store?
I predict four movies will earn more than 10 nominations each: “Barbie” (11), “Killers of the Flower Moon” (10), “Oppenheimer” (13) and “Poor Things” (10), marking the second time that many films have surpassed double digits in one year. The first was in 2019, when “The Irishman,” “Joker,” “Once
Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “1917” achieved the feat. Interestingly, all lost best picture to “Parasite,” the first non-english language victor. Does that bode well for the French drama “Anatomy of a Fall”?
Alexander Payne’s heartwarmer “The Holdovers” is likely to have a good morning, with acting frontrunners Paul Giamatti and Da’vine Joy Randolph earning nods.
However, this is the Oscars, so there will be surprises. One shocker may see Michael Mann’s racing epic “Ferrari” crossing the best picture lineup. The Academy might also pepper some “Saltburn” among its picks, particularly in the screenplay category, where Emerald Fennell’s acidic portrait of high society should resonate.
Some actors’ phones might not be ringing with congratulatory calls. Bradley Cooper’s portrayal of Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro” has been well received. However, given Cooper’s jobs as director, producer and writer on the biopic, some members view his movie as “a vanity project.” In a stacked lead actor race, he could find himself more vulnerable than people think.
Here are our final predictions.
BEST PICTURE
American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things The Zone of Interest
DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer
(The Zone of Interest) Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) Alexander Payne
(The Holdovers)
Martin Scorsese
(Killers of the Flower Moon)
ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro) Colman Domingo (Rustin) Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone
(Killers of the Flower Moon) Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Margot Robbie
(Barbie)
Emma Stone
(Poor Things)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) Ryan Gosling (Barbie) Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) America Ferrera (Barbie) Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Julianne Moore (May December) Da’vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Anatomy of a Fall The Holdovers May December Past Lives Saltburn
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron Elemental Nimona Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things
CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things
COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Napoleon Oppenheimer Poor Things
FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda The Last Voyage of Demeter Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things
SOUND
Barbie Ferrari Maestro Oppenheimer The Zone of Interest
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator Godzilla: Minus One Poor Things Society of the Snow Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse
ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction Killers of the Flowers Moon Oppenheimer Saltburn Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse
ORIGINAL SONG
American Symphony (“It Never Went Away”) Barbie
(“I’m Just Ken”)
Barbie
(“What Was I Made For?”) Flamin’ Hot
(“The Fire Inside”) Rustin
(“Road to Freedom”)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Symphony Beyond Utopia Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy To Kill a Tiger 20 Days in Mariupol
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Society of the Snow (Spain) The Taste of Things (France) The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany) 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine) The Zone of Interest (U.K.)
ANIMATED SHORT
Humo (Smoke) Letter to a Pig Once Upon a Studio Pete War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCS of Book Banning Camp Courage Deciding Vote The Last Repair Shop Nai Nai & Wài Pó
LIVE ACTION SHORT
The After The Anne Frank Gift Shop The Shepherd Strange Way of Life The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar