The State of the Race
How best picture Oscar nominees stack up against each other By Sharareh Drury, Todd Gilchrist, Carole Horst, Jenelle Riley and Jazz Tangcay
The 10 best picture nominees have been announced, with little surprise — in fact, the lineup matches the PGA Award nominations perfectly. Variety editors break down the final nominees and dissect their perceived strengths and weaknesses in taking home the top prize.
American Fiction
Adapting Percival Everett’s “Erasure,” Cord Jefferson writes and directs this film about a frustrated Black author (Jeffrey Wright) who unexpectedly becomes successful after writing a parodic novel that panders to Black stereotypes. Advantages: Consistent wins at festivals and from critics’ groups throughout awards season have kept this incisive comedy in the same conversation as its competitors. Jefferson’s feature debut touches on zeitgeist-y questions about identity, with the added advantage of offering something to laugh at as well as think about. And its other nominations for Wright and Sterling K. Brown in the actor and supporting actor categories, respectively, incentivize voters to look more closely and from multiple perspectives at the film. Challenges: Jefferson is a newcomer to the field, and his work could be overshadowed by that of his more seasoned competitors — he failed to land a directing nom, for example. White Academy members may additionally be unsure if voting for the movie supports its stereotype-breaking message or reinforces an uncomfortable stereotype about themselves.
Anatomy of a Fall
Justine Triet is writer-director of this courtroom drama about a novelist (Sandra Hüller) on trial for the murder of her husband. Advantages: Triet’s film has collected accolades from dozens of critics’ groups and industry orgs since its premiere at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival (where it won two awards including the Palme d’or), most recently nabbing two prizes (non-english language picture and screenplay) at the Golden Globes. Beyond best picture,
Academy members recognized the film in the directing, actress, original screenplay and editing categories, ensuring that voting members from several branches will see it instead of simply rubber-stamping their favorites. Challenges: Probing some uncomfortable truths about marriage with a tough-to-like protagonist, Triet’s film generates more complex conclusions — good and bad — than its competition, making it difficult to champion opposite the front-runners’ unambiguous causes of, say, nuclear disarmament, antisemitism, genocide or women’s empowerment.
Barbie
In case you haven’t heard, Greta Gerwig directs the tale of the iconic doll venturing into the real world on a journey of self-discovery.
Advantages: It’s the biggest blockbuster of the year — and also comes with rave reviews. It’s a cultural touchstone and comes into the night with eight nominations. Challenges: It’s the biggest blockbuster of the year — which means voters might think it’s been awarded enough. Despite changes in the Academy in recent years, there is still some bias against big comedies. The backlash over Gerwig missing in director and producer-star Robbie not landing in actress could help — particularly in the adapted screenplay category — or it could hurt.
The Holdovers
Alexander Payne directs this 1970s-set tale of a cranky teacher (Paul Giamatti) stuck with a student (Dominic Sessa) over the holidays.
Advantages: It’s the film nobody dislikes, and that goes far on a preferential ballot. It also has strong support from the actors’ branch with both
Giamatti nominated in lead and Da’vine Joy Randolph in supporting actress — it doesn’t hurt that they’re also considered frontrunners. A surprise editing nomination also buoys its chances.
Challenges: The film is very much the vision of Payne and he failed to land in the director race. There are also some voters who dismiss it as “small” compared to flashier films in the race.
Killers of the Flower Moon
Martin Scorsese’s sobering look at the Osage Nation murders starring Lily Gladstone as Mollie Burkhart and Leonardo Dicaprio as her husband Ernest. Advantages: Ten nominations overall, including some surprises, such as Scott George’s “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People).” Gladstone has been collecting her flowers all season, making history as the first Native American
woman to be nominated for the actress Oscar. Martin Scorsese is Martin Scorsese. Challenges: Scorsese tends to bring in the noms but not always the wins — see “The Irishman” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.” Emma Stone and Sandra Hüller pose threats to Gladstone’s dominance. Dicaprio missed actor, and Scorsese and Eric Roth missed screenplay. A few have kicked and screamed about the film’s three-hour-and-a-half runtime — but then again, editor Thelma Schoonmaker landed an Oscar nomination in that category.
Maestro
Bradley Cooper writes, directs, produces and stars in this love story about composer Leonard Bernstein and his wife, Felicia Montealegre (Carey Mulligan). Advantages: Oscar loves a transformation and Cooper’s is pretty incredible. There’s a long link between the makeup winner (the
film’s Kazu Hiro is considered a front-runner) and acting wins — Gary Oldman, Jessica Chastain, Meryl Streep and Brendan Fraser all won while undergoing makeovers. And both Cooper and Mulligan are perceived as overdue. Challenges: It has yet to emerge as a favorite in any of the top categories and Cooper didn’t land a director nomination. Some have dismissed the film as less accessible as the others in the race.
Oppenheimer
Christopher Nolan drops his piece-de-resistance in “Oppenheimer”; Cillian Murphy plays the titular character who develops the atomic bomb. Advantages: Thirteen Oscar nominations. “Oppenheimer” became part of a cultural phenomenon when it was released. Pundits and audiences alike have praised Nolan’s achievements, and it won the top prize at Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. Let’s not forget Robert Downey Jr. as Lewis Strauss, also a front-runner in the supporting actor race. Murphy might face competition, but he’s been in pole position since August. And then, there’s Nolan. Simply put, he’s overdue.
Challenges: Not much. Could the online outrage over “Barbie” being snubbed in certain categories impact “Oppenheimer’s” chances? Unlikely. What about the film’s three-hour runtime? People still came out in droves.
Past Lives
Celine Song’s directorial film debut centers on Nora (Greta Lee) and Hae Sung (Teo Yoo), two childhood friends who reunite after two decades and confront notions of destiny, love and the choices that make a life. Advantages: Critically acclaimed as an emotionally moving exploration of relationships, the film is backed by reigning Oscar champion A24 (who has smartly kept this early release in constant conversation as it did with last year’s winner “Everything Everywhere All at Once”), and boosted by five Golden Globes nominations and a Gotham Award for best feature. Challenges: The Oscars prefer to reward veteran filmmakers or at least those with a few projects under their belt — only six first-time helmers have won best picture. “Past Lives” lacks acting noms to bolster it, competing in only one other category (original screenplay), though it could arguably win there.
Poor Things
Yorgos Lanthimos’ tale of Bella Baxter, a young woman implanted with the brain of an infant who goes on a journey of self-discovery, maturity and empowerment, won the top prize at the Venice Film Festival.
Advantages: With 11 Oscar nominations, the film is packed with Academy faves, including actress Emma Stone (a previous winner for “La La Land”), Mark Ruffalo (four Oscar noms) and director Lanthimos (five nominations). The film also won the Golden Globe for comedy/musical, beating out “Barbie” in an upset. Challenges: Despite past Oscar love for Lanthimos, Stone and Ruffalo, Oscar voters may not board this sex-positive story of female empowerment, especially in the wake of more traditional pics.
The Zone of Interest
Jonathan Glazer adapts Martin Amis’ novel about the Nazi commandant of Auschwitz and his idyllic family life just outside the walls of the concentration camp. Pro: Glazer’s approach to a Holocaust drama is to keep the death and horror offscreen while documenting the commandant’s family using cameras placed throughout the house and garden. It’s almost experimental — especially the score and sequences using an infrared military camera — and breaks aways from decades of established approaches to similar stories. It pays off; the film received critical raves and earned five Oscar nominations. Challenges: Glazer’s approach is appreciated by many but could put off voters not willing to go along with his particular vision. “Zone” is also nominated for international feature, so Oscar voters may just want to keep its trophy haul to one category.