‘Oppenheimer’ Primed to Explode in Brit Awards Battle
Christopher Nolan atomic drama is the one to beat in the BAFTA contest
At the nominations stage, the combination of juried and general voting now makes the BAFTAS the least predictable of all the major industry awards. Pretty much every top category this year is marked by a surprising inclusion or omission, with even some of the year’s most-nominated films falling short in unexpected places. Take Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” with nine nominations including best film — but none for directing, writing or breakout star Lily Gladstone. Joining Scorsese on the sidelines: Yorgos Lanthimos, helmer of 11-time nominee “Poor Things.”
Perhaps nobody is more disappointed, however, than the headline writers who were anticipating a “Barbenheimer” BAFTA showdown. Voters clearly sided with Christopher Nolan’s soberminded “Oppenheimer” in the summer blockbuster battle, nominating it across the board, while Greta Gerwig’s giddy feminist fantasy “Barbie” scored just five bids, missing best film and director — quite a comedown after it jointly led the BAFTA longlists with
“Oppenheimer” (and “Killers of the Flower Moon”) in early January.
Here’s how the race is shaping up ahead of the Feb. 18 ceremony.
FILM
With a whopping 13 nominations and no misses in the major categories, “Oppenheimer” is clearly the one to beat — mirroring its Oscar-frontrunner status across the pond. “Poor Things” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” are right behind it in terms of numbers, boosted by copious nominations for their impressive craft contributions, but those aforementioned directing and acting snubs (“Poor Things” also surprisingly failed to net Mark Ruffalo a supporting nom) dim their chances for the top prize. If there’s a wild card, perhaps it’s “Anatomy of a Fall”: Justine Triet’s Palme d’or-winning fusion of courtroom thriller and marital drama has been an arthouse smash in the U.K., and outperformed expectations with seven key nominations, including best film, director, original screenplay and actress — thus converting all its longlist bids. Alexander Payne’s rueful Christmas comedy “The Holdovers,” also with seven, likewise showed up everywhere it could have done. Sometimes lowkey charm pays off.
DIRECTOR
Nominated twice before in this category but never victorious, local son Nolan already appeared to be the frontrunner here for his muscular steering of “Oppenheimer” — and that’s before his path was further cleared with the exclusion of high-profile rivals like Scorsese, Lanthimos and Gerwig. Despite a longlisting process geared toward gender parity, Triet is the only woman nominated; she and Payne are Nolan’s only competitors with corresponding best film bids, though their films are likelier to be awarded for their writing. Without best film nominations, the odds are long for the remaining three nominees: multihyphenate Bradley Cooper for his passion project “Maestro,” Andrew Haigh for his queer heartbreaker “All of Us Strangers” and Jonathan Glazer for his rigorous Holocaust drama “The Zone of Interest” — which, with nine nominations, presumably only just missed out in the top category.
ACTRESS
With a Golden Globe win and an armful of critics’ awards, Indigenous actor Lily Gladstone was seen as a potential frontrunner here for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Her shock omission makes this a likely duel between Emma Stone — a former winner for
“La La Land,” doing career-high work as a vivacious woman-child in “Poor Things” — and Sandra Hüller, the formidable anchor of “Anatomy of a Fall,” coming off a stunning year that also saw her land a supporting nod for “The Zone of Interest.” The nomination is likely the reward for former winner Carey Mulligan in “Maestro,” Margot Robbie’s perky star turn in “Barbie,” soul singer turned actress Fantasia Barrino for the musical incarnation of “The Color Purple” and surprise hometown nominee Vivian Oparah, a luminous breakout in London romcom “Rye Lane.”
ACTOR
Unlike in actress, all the presumed frontrunners for the win are present and correct: Cillian Murphy, for his sharply controlled demystification of J. Robert Oppenheimer; Paul Giamatti, the prickly but ultimately benevolent professor in “The Holdovers”; and Cooper, for his prosthetically enhanced inhabitation of Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro.” Yet another biopic contender, Colman Domingo in “Rustin,” is unlikely to leapfrog that trio; ditto Barry Keoghan, a winner last year for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” now nominated as a secretive social climber in “Saltburn,” and Teo Yoo, the lovelorn heart of Celine Song’s tender, time-crossing indie “Past Lives.” Considering the competition was fierce enough to freeze out Andrew Scott’s lauded turn in “All of Us Strangers,” a nomination is not to be sniffed at.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
As a grieving mother and weary boarding-school cook in “The Holdovers,” Da’vine Joy Randolph has taken just about every supporting actress trophy on offer this season. Given her film’s robust showing in the nominations, there’s no reason to think her winning streak will stop here. Perhaps voters might want to recognize double nominee Sandra Hüller here if not in actress, but her chilly Nazi hausfrau in “The Zone of Interest” is a hard character to embrace, however immaculately played. Any hometurf advantage is likely to be split between Brit nominees Emily Blunt’s quiet seething in “Oppenheimer,” Rosamund Pike’s hilariously vacuous toff in “Saltburn” and Claire Foy’s spectral mum in “All of Us Strangers”; Danielle Brooks is best in show in “The Color Purple,” but that won’t be enough to stop Randolph.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
In a category led by villains, Golden Globe winner Robert Downey Jr. — playing the brittle, embittered antagonist of “Oppenheimer” — looks poised to benefit from the film’s considerable momentum. Ryan Gosling may have Kenergy as the vengeful himbo in “Barbie,” but probably needed more wind in the film’s sails to pose a threat here. Robert
De Niro, who scored the only acting nomination for “Killers of the Flower Moon” as a vicious crime lord, has remarkably never won a BAFTA, despite seven previous tries; if more voters were aware of that, it would be a factor in his favor. The younger, non-villainous half of the ballot is likely sitting this one out: Dominic Sessa’s gangly teen misfit in “The Holdovers,” Jacob Elordi’s privileged patsy in “Saltburn” and Paul Mescal’s yearning neighbor in “All of Us Strangers.”
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
As with “All Quiet on the Western Front” last year, any nominee in this category that’s also up for best film tends to win by default — that points to an easy victory for “Anatomy of a Fall,” even if Triet’s film defies the name of the category with nearly half its dialogue in English. The same goes for Korean American love story “Past Lives,” though, like J.A. Bayona’s visceral disaster drama “Society of the Snow” and the very differently harrowing Ukraine documentary “20 Days in Mariupol,” it’s unlikely to upset the frontrunner. But watch out for British contender “The Zone of Interest”: BAFTA rarely gets a chance to reward its own in this category, and with nine nominations, there’s clearly much admiration for Glazer’s dark vision across the voting body.
BRITISH FILM
Another category where the outcome tends to be foretold by the best film nominees: though 10 films are nominated here, “Poor Things” is the only one to show up in the top race. That means this will likely be the consolation prize for Lanthimos’ wildly imaginative Victorian sci-fi — as it was for the director’s “The Favourite” five years ago. Again, “The Zone of Interest” provides the most compelling opposition, even if it hardly looks very British on the surface; back in the days when the winner in this category was jury-determined, a celebrated indie like “All of Us Strangers” might have sprung an upset. With no best film or director nominations between them, the remaining nominees — “How to Have Sex,” “Rye Lane,” “Scrapper,” “The Old Oak,” “Saltburn,” “Wonka” and “Napoleon” — are on the outside looking in.