Shifting Sands
By moving to spring, ‘Dune: Part Two’ could revive a barren box office
Back in August 2023, as two labor strikes were roiling Hollywood and preventing stars from promoting blockbusters, Warner Bros. and Legendary decided to postpone the release of “Dune: Part Two.” The studios feared that without Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya on the press circuit, the big-budget science fiction sequel wouldn’t live up to its box office potential on its initial November date.
“My first thought was ‘Oh, crap,’” recalls Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer of the Texas-based cinema chain Flix Brewhouse.
Like many theater operators, Randleman was devastated by the delay. Already, Christmastime was lacking a behemoth like a “Star Wars” or an “Avatar” sequel, and there was hope “Dune: Part Two” — scheduled for Nov. 3 — would offset middling attendance around the holidays.
The “Dune” sequel may in fact be better positioned on its new March 1 release date. Analysts believe it’ll benefit from a perfect (desert) storm: pent-up demand for a blockbuster, a healthy dose of star power — Austin Butler and Florence Pugh join the already buzzy cast — and a renewed appreciation for Imax.
“We couldn’t be more excited now that it’s in March,” Randleman says. “We need it.”
Based on early tracking, “Dune: Part Two” will deliver a muchneeded box office jolt. The sci-fi epic is expected to collect at least $60 million to $80 million in its domestic debut. It would be the first movie to open above $50 million since last October’s Blumhouse thriller “Five Nights at Freddy’s.”
The first movie, starring Chalamet, Oscar Isaac and Zendaya, opened to $41 million while appearing simultaneously on HBO Max. It cost $165 million and ended its box office run with $402 million, one of the only financial wins from the studio’s COVIDERA hybrid release strategy. The sequel reportedly cost $190 million, so analysts believe it will be a commercial winner if it replicates the results of the original film.
“Assuming that audiences and critics like it, this is going to have an outstanding opening,” says analyst David A. Gross of Franchise Entertainment Research. “The first film was slowed by the pandemic and simultaneous availability on streaming.”
“Part Two” will also have an outsized presence on Imax and Dolby screens, which cost more than the average movie ticket. With “Part One,” 50% of domestic revenue came from premium large formats. The sequel will be released in the Imax 70mm for“sci-fi mat in 12 venues worldwide, a factor that’s sure to excite cinephiles in the wake of “Oppenheimer’s” similar theatrical strategy.
“Denis Villeneuve is a filmmaker [where] the format becomes as important as the movies themselves,” says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
Reception will factor into ticket sales. However, Villeneuve has proven that he can adapt Frank Herbert’s notoriously dense 1965 novel. In addition to box office riches, the first film won six Oscars and was nominated for best picture.
With any sequel or franchise, there’s a chance the follow-up could struggle to expand its fan base. Can audiences see the second without watching the first? Will people who skipped the original feel compelled to go back and watch it before the new installment?
can be tricky to make appealing outside of its core demographic,” says Shawn Robbins, chief analyst of Boxoffice Pro. “Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya have only gotten more popular, which could bring in younger people.”
A potential downside to the new release date? Auditoriums have been mostly empty for weeks. That could be a problem because one effective promotional tactic is showcasing trailers in theaters before a movie. So audiences haven’t been exposed to teasers for “Part Two.” Of course, the studio is heavily promoting the film elsewhere, including having aired prime spots during NFL games.
“The marketing will be exhaustive, even without strong theater attendance leading up to its opening,” says Gross. “The campaign isn’t going to miss a thing.”