It All Comes Down to SAG
Some Oscar nominees are banking on an upset at the actors guild awards to boost their campaigns
Will Bradley Cooper, Lily Gladstone and “Barbie”become Oscar winners? That may hinge on the decisions of more than 20,000 SAG-AFTRA members, who could determine who gets to deliver acceptance speeches and who is forced to applaud with plastic smiles on their faces when the Academy Awards take place next month.
With final Oscar voting starting Feb. 22, the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which air on Feb. 24, are shaping up to be the final battleground for several contenders once considered frontrunners in the race for awards season glory.
In a showdown between Warner Bros. and Universal Pictures, Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” lead the tally with four nominations each. They’re neck and neck in two categories: cast ensemble and supporting actor, where Ryan Gosling faces off against Robert Downey Jr. The summer blockbuster titans are also in a fight for the top ensemble honor.
“Oppenheimer” seems to have the edge on Oscar night, but SAG plays by its own rules. The sting of Oscar snubs can sway the guild’s picks, as seen with Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”) and Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”), who snagged SAG Awards without Oscar nods. Gerwig’s exclusion from the Oscars’ directing category has rallied support for “Barbie,” possibly propelling it to SAG dominance. Yet, a victory here doesn’t predict Oscar gold (or in this case, ceramic bronze), especially for a film as genre-defying as “Barbie.”
Meanwhile, “Oppenheimer” has been an unstoppable force, with Downey sweeping the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA awards. Gosling’s hilarious portrait of dimwitted Ken is Downey’s toughest competition, but if the “Oppenheimer” star scores at SAG, he should probably expect to hear his name called on Oscar night. History tells us that snagging the four major televised awards althat most always spells Oscar success. There’s one exception — Russell Crowe, who pulled that off with “A Beautiful Mind,” only to watch Denzel Washington crowned best actor for “Training Day” at the Academy Awards.
The race for best actor remains fiercely competitive, with Cillian Murphy’s BAFTA win putting him in direct contention with Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”), who has Globe and CCA wins in his pocket. Giamatti, admired for his role as a cantankerous teacher, brings a mix of gravitas, charm — and precedent — to the fray, having won a SAG Award for “Cinderella Man.” Will this be the year the veteran character actor gets his due?
Lily Gladstone, despite a trophy case overflowing with critics awards for her turn in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” faces her moment of truth at SAG, especially following a BAFTA snub. With only a Golden Globe to her name from the televised ceremonies, Gladstone may not be able to fend off “Poor Things” star Emma Stone, whose go-for-broke performance has many fans. It’s worth noting that Gladstone represents the best chance for “Killers of the Flower Moon” to avoid an Oscars shutout, despite its 10 nominations — a fate befell two previous Martin Scorsese pictures, “Gangs of New York” and “The Irishman.” The Oscars seem to prefer nominating Scorsese’s films to awarding them.
And nobody is stopping Da’vine Joy Randolph. “The Holdovers” star is the one acting lock for the Oscars. Remember though, anything can happen with SAG. After all, Jamie Lee Curtis wasn’t expected to win an Oscar until the “Everything Everywhere All at Once” star was recognized by the actors guild. Nobody should be feeling too secure.