Oscar Forecast: ‘Oppenheimer’ Sweeps
Christopher Nolan’s drama will have the biggest haul of the 96th ceremony
As Frodo famously whispered to Samwise after casting the One Ring into the fiery abyss in the epic finale of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”: “It is done.”
The curtains have closed on final Oscar voting, and the air is thick with anticipation as the envelopes are primed to reveal the chosen ones in 23 categories. But first, let’s delve into what we already know.
Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster “Oppenheimer,” which recounts the saga of the father of the atomic bomb, is poised to sweep the night. Having clinched every major guild and industry accolade — Golden Globes, Critics Choice, DGA, BAFTA, SAG and PGA — it’s the first movie to have a “perfect season” since “Argo” (2012). The Universal Pictures biopic might match the record set by 1961’s “West Side Story,” which claimed a breathtaking 10 awards, the second most in history.
Locked and loaded are the supporting acting categories: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”) and Da’vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) have stolen hearts with their captivating performances, and they lead the pack with critical acclaim and endearing speeches. Yet, amid the certainty, the lead acting races offer a twist or two. The realm of lead actor has long been ruled by Cillian Murphy’s magnetic portrayal of the conflicted scientist in Nolan’s magnum opus. However, the final stretch of voting has seen two seasoned stalwarts — Paul Giamatti from “The Holdovers” and Jeffrey Wright from “American Fiction” — make formidable strides. Murphy maintains a firm grip, but the allure of a career actor getting his due might sway voters.
In best actress, the competition is as fierce as it gets. Emma Stone’s transformation into a woman with a child’s brain in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” has garnered substantial support. Yet Lily Gladstone’s groundbreaking win at the SAG Awards for her riveting performance in Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” may bring enough momentum to clinch victory in the heat of voting. Furthermore, Sandra Hüller’s ferocious turn in French legal thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” could split votes with Stone among international members, paving the way for Gladstone’s ascent.
Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” drew a lukewarm reception at the guild awards, though it appears to be the frontrunner in the original song category, with the Grammy-winning “What Was I Made For?” positioned to claim the prize. But that could be it for 2023’s box office leader. The film does stand on the precipice in adapted screenplay and might snag a tech award or two, which could add further glitter to its night.
Following are our final predictions.
BEST PICTURE
Will win Oppenheimer Could win Poor Things Should win American Fiction Should have been here Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse
DIRECTOR
Will win Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) Could win Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) Should win Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) Should have been here Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
ACTOR
Will win Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) Could win Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) Should win Colman Domingo (Rustin) Should have been here Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
ACTRESS
Will win Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) Could win Emma Stone (Poor Things) Should win Lily Gladstone Should have been here Aunjanue Ellis-taylor (Origin)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) Could win Ryan Gosling (Barbie) Should win Ryan Gosling Should have been here John Magaro (Past Lives)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win Da’vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) Could win Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) Should win Da’vine Joy Randolph Should have been here Laurie Metcalf (Somewhere in Queens)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari) Could win Past Lives (Celine Song) Should win Anatomy of a Fall Should have been here Monster (Yuji Sakamoto)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win American Fiction (Cord Jefferson) Could win Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan) Should win American Fiction Should have been here Origin (Ava Duvernay)
ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Could win The Boy and the Heron Should win Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Should have been here Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win Poor Things Could win Barbie Should win Killers of the Flower Moon Should have been here The Taste of Things
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win Oppenheimer Could win Killers of the Flower Moon Should win Oppenheimer Should have been here Ferrari
COSTUME DESIGN
Will win Barbie Could win Poor Things Should win Killers of the Flower Moon Should have been here Blue Beetle
FILM EDITING
Will win Oppenheimer Could win Anatomy of a Fall Should win Anatomy of a Fall Should have been here Air
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win Maestro Could win Poor Things Should win Maestro Should have been here Blackberry
SOUND
Will win Oppenheimer Could win The Zone of Interest Should win Oppenheimer Should have been here Robot Dreams
VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win The Creator Could win Godzilla Minus One Should win The Creator Should have been here Elemental
ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson) Could win Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson) Should win Oppenheimer Should have been here Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
ORIGINAL SONG
Will win What Was I Made For? (Barbie) Could win I’m Just Ken (Barbie) Should win I’m Just Ken Should have been here Live That Way Forever (The Iron Claw)
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win 20 Days in Mariupol Could win To Kill a Tiger Should win 20 Days in Mariupol Should have been here American Symphony
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will win The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) Could win Perfect Days (Japan) Should win The Zone of Interest Should have been here Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World (Romania)
ANIMATED SHORT
Will win War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko Could win Letter to a Pig Should win Pachyderme Should have been here Once Upon a Studio
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win The ABCS of Book Banning Could win The Last Repair Shop Should win The Last Repair Shop Should have been here: Relighting Candles: The Tim Sullivan Story
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will win: The After Could win: Red, White and Blue Should win: Red, White and Blue Should have been here: Strange Way of Life
Sandra Hüller’s ferocious turn in “Anatomy of a Fall” could split votes with Emma Stone among international members, paving the way for Lily Gladstone’s ascent.