Clinton march slowed, but not stalled
Squeaker over Sanders not seen as long-term concern for campaign
Hillary Clinton’s vow to never again lose the Iowa caucuses, as she did in spectacular fashion in 2008, was paying off in a near-dead-even tie.
But for Clinton, that’s probably going to be enough.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ strong showing almost certainly denies Clinton a glide path to the nomination and prolongs the contest deeper into the calendar than Clinton hoped, by likely giving her opponent an infusion of cash and momentum.
It’s also sure to resurrect the questions that have long surrounded Clinton and nagged at Democrats, about why she can’t close the deal, why many voters remain cool to her, and whether she truly is capable of knocking out a Republican in the fall.
Despite it all, Clinton’s campaign was designed to withstand a bad night in Iowa, and a loss in next week’s New Hampshire primary, where Sanders leads in the polls. She has the money, the state-by-state organizations and a spate of Clinton- friendly contests coming up that still give her the inside track on the Democratic nomination.
“I think it's important to take the long view. Unless numbers change dramatically in South Carolina and Nevada, and more importantly, the states in Super Tuesday, it will be difficult for Senator Sanders to win the nomination,” said Mitch Stewart, a Democratic strategist and Clinton supporter who was Obama’s Iowa field director in 2008 and battleground states director in 2012.
David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Barack Obama who directs the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago, called it “a good night for Bernie.”
“A tie when you're dueling with the champion is a win, even though the terrain was more hospitable to Sanders, and the diverse states beyond New Hampshire will be far more challenging for him,” Axelrod said. “She’s still the favorite, but he will raise big money off of tonight's showing, which could, at a minimum, prolong the race.”
Sanders, a Democratic socialist without the youth or biracial appeal of Barack Obama, nevertheless tapped into Obama’s voters and this year’s angry, anti-establishment wave. He rode a wave of young voter turnout after his campaign worked hard to organize voters on college campuses across the state.
Sanders said when he began his campaign in Iowa nine months ago, “we had no money. We had no name recognition and we were taking on the most powerful political organization in the United States of America.”
Sanders said Iowans are sending a “profound” message: “It is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics.”
An estimated 11.2 percent of eligible Iowans ages 17 to 29 participated in the party caucuses Monday night, and of those on the Democratic side, 84 percent supported Sanders, according to estimates released on Tuesday by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, a research group at Tufts University.
In a speech to supporters, Clinton never outright declared victory but said she was “breathing a big sigh of relief” following the caucuses. Rather than dwell on the results, however, she focused her remarks on her argument that she is the candidate best suited to take on the opposing party in the general election. ““We may have differences of opinion about how best to achieve our goals but I believe we have a very clear idea that the Democratic party and this campaign stands for what is best in America,” she said.