On the Sales Side at Least, Retailers Fared OK in 2023
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports low-single-digit gains for the holiday season and year overall, consistent with earlier industry forecasts.
Despite warfare overseas, severe weather, inflation and picky consumer spending, 2023 was a pretty good year for retailing in the U.S. after all, capped by an OK holiday run.
That's according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which on Wednesday reported that total 2023 retail sales, which exclude gas and auto sales, rose 5.32 percent over 2022.
Core retail sales — which excludes restaurant, gas and auto sales — were up 4.46 percent last year.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, core retail sales for November and December were 3.3 percent and total retail sales were 3.7 percent.
For December 2023 alone, The Retail Monitor calculated that core retail sales increased 2.4 percent from December 2022, and 0.19 percent month-over-month. November 2023 core retail sales rose
4.17 percent from November 2022, and increased 0.73 percent month-over-month.
In December 2023, total retail sales were up 3.07 percent, and 0.44 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month. November 2023 total retail sales gained 4.24 percent from the year-ago month, and rose 0.77 percent month-over-month.
While the percent gains were low-single digits, Matthew Shay, NRF's president and chief executive officer, said, “December's numbers combined with November's results show retailers had a very successful two-month holiday season. Clearly, retailers got it right this holiday season, providing consumers with what they wanted, options on when and where to make their purchases and with prices customers were comfortable paying. These advance insights from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor give everyone who follows the retail industry a jump-start on government data that won't come out for another week.”
The figures from the Retail Monitor were close to NRF's forecast from last year that 2023 holiday retail sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 — excluding autos, gas and restaurants — would increase
3 to 4 percent over 2022, to between
$957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. The forecast was based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and final results will be known when the Census Bureau releases December's numbers next week.
The day after Christmas, Mastercard reported that U.S. retail sales increased
3.1 percent for the Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 period, from the same period a year ago.
Mastercard's findings are based on in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, exclude automotive sales and are not adjusted for inflation, which in the U.S. was 3.1 percent as of last November.
The whole story on both holiday sales and profits won't be learned until February and March, when major retailers issue their fourth-quarter results. Still, profits should be OK for the fourth quarter because inventories in most categories were more in line with demand compared to recent years, so promotions this holiday were more targeted and under control. Also, freight and cotton costs were lower this year, helping offset higher labor costs.
Wednesday's report by the Retail Monitor was its third. The Monitor launched last November to provide monthly retail sales data. The NRF indicated that unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually. The data is before inflation, which is about 3.2 percent.
In other figures on December released by the Retail Monitor, sales were up in six out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, health and personal care stores and clothing and accessory stores, and up in five categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
Online and other non-store sales were up 2.59 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 31.2 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
Health and personal care stores were up 0.17 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 5.6 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.44 percent month-overmonth but up 4.28 percent year-overyear unadjusted.
Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.84 percent month-over-month and up 2.39 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.62 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 2.25 percent yearover-year unadjusted.
General merchandise stores were up 0.86 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and up 0.84 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
Electronics and appliance stores were down 3.22 percent month-over-month seasonally adjusted and down 6.3 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.9 percent monthover-month seasonally adjusted and down 3.76 percent year-over-year unadjusted.
Building and garden supply stores were down 1.52 percent month-overmonth and down 10.17 percent yearover-year unadjusted.