Who will reach the Final Four and win it all? A March Madness bracket analysis
The women’s NCAA Tournament field is set and now the fun begins with 68 teams vying for the national championship and cutting down the nets in Cleveland.
The stars are out with Caitlin Clark trying to get Iowa its first national championship and Angel Reese looking to help LSU repeat as champion. The third-seeded Tigers ended a 10-year run of No. 1-seeded teams winning the title.
Look for that to be a oneyear thing. Here is a look at what could happen over the next few weeks and remember: This guidance will be 100% accurate until the first round tips off on Friday.
CHALK RULES
It’s foolish to pick against top seeds, which have won the title in 14 of the past 16 seasons.
The only other time before last year it has happened in that span was in 2011, when coach Gary Blair led Texas A&M to the title as a No. 2 seed. At least two No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four every season since since 2005 with the exception of 2016. South Carolina, the overall No. 1 seed, is a huge favorite to win the title.
BRACKET-BUSTING UPSETS
Watch for some mid-level seeds to cause some headaches.
Last year, ninth-seeded Miami and eighth-seeded Mississippi made runs to the second weekend by knocking off No. 1 teams. Ole Miss is back in the field as a 7-seed and Notre Dame better prepare for coach Yolett Mcphee-mccuin’s squad in the second round.
Princeton is an experienced team behind guard Kaitlyn Chen and took UCLA down to the wire in Los Angeles early in the season before losing a close one. If the Tigers win their opener, they could face Iowa in a game that would feature a Kaitlyn-caitlin matchup.
SAFE BETS
No 14- or 15-seed has ever won a game in the women’s tournament and that trend is likely to continue. None came within single digits of pulling off upsets last year and this season’s group will be hard-pressed to do it. Jackson State has a chance if they can figure out a way to contain Uconn.
BEWARE THE 12
As with the men’s bracket, It’s a nearly annual thing that a 12-seeds knocks off a 5 in the opening round. At least one 12-seed has made it out of the first round in five of the last six women’s tournaments, including the two the past two seasons.
INJURY BUG
Virginia Tech made the Final Four last season for the first time behind the strong play of Elizabeth Kitley, who won the ACC player of the year for the third time. She injured her knee in the regular-season finale this year and missed the ACC Tournament. Her status is still unclear for the NCAAS. Indiana’s Mackenzie Holmes also hurt her knee in the regular-season finale, but appears to be ready to go. Uconn’s Aaliyah Edwards broke her nose in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. She sat out the final two games but is ready for the NCAAS.
THE FINAL FOUR
Analysis: The Pac-12 has been the best conference all season long and in its final year we believe two teams will reach the national semifinals. South Carolina will face Stanford and UCLA will play Ohio State. The Gamecocks beat the Cardinal in the 2017 Final Four en route to their first national championship. Stanford returned the favor four years later. Ohio State made it this far one other time, back in 1993 when Katie Smith led the team to the title game. UCLA has never reached this grand a stage before in women’s basketball. The talented trio of Betts, Rice and Osborne will get them there.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Pick: South Carolina vs. UCLA. They played in the Sweet 16 last season and the Gamecocks came away with an easy win. It will be much closer this time.
Analysis: Staley has pushed all the right buttons this season to help a new Gamecocks squad reach the tournament unbeaten for the second consecutive year. This time, the Gamecocks will finish the job with a national championship..