Polls close in tight Alberta election race that could reshape Canada's climate agenda

Polls closed across Alberta on Monday evening as Canada's main oil-producing province neared the end of a tight election race that is expected to have a significant bearing on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's climate goals, which are already seen as lagging global peers.

The battle between populist Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party (UCP), which is seeking a second consecutive term, and Rachel Notley's left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) is expected to be extremely close, pollsters say, even though Alberta is traditionally a conservative bastion.

All polls except one closed at 8pm local time (0200 GMT) and results are expected to be called later Monday evening. One polling station in the rural seat of Rimbey-rocky Mountain House-sundre will remain open until 9.45pm after opening late, meaning results for that seat will be delayed.

Data on early voting showed more than 758,000 Albertans had already cast their ballot before polls opened, up from a record 700,476 in 2019 - suggesting a strong overall turnout is likely.

The result could reshape Trudeau's climate agenda if the UCP wins, making it harder for Canada to meet its goal of cutting emissions 40-45 per cent below 2005 levels by the end of this decade.

Smith is opposed to many of Trudeau's policies including an oil and gas emissions cap and a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, arguing they will hurt an energy sector that contributes more than 20 per cent to Alberta's GDP.

Notley's NDP, which ruled from 2015 to 2019 after a shock election victory that ended decades of conservative rule in the province, is seen as more amenable to Liberal plans to rapidly cut emissions, although it also opposes the oil and gas emissions cap.

Both Notley and Smith voted in advance of polls opening. Alberta is Canada's highest-emitting province, largely due to vast oil sands operations in the northern boreal forest and produces 80 per cent of the country's 4.9 million barrels per day of crude oil.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Jared Dziuba said both parties are committed to decarbonisation, but the pace and costs of the effort vary.

"We see the likely outcome of an NDP victory as (possibly) accelerated decarbonization, but potentially at much higher net costs to industry given its position on environment and taxes," Dziuba wrote in a note to clients, adding the UCP would likely support a steady pace of progress at a lower cost.