GUINEA-BISSAU: POLITICAL CHAOS COULD BOOST COCAINE TRADE
AMIDST the political chaos, daily life appears to be carrying on as normal in the capital, Bissau, but underneath the veneer, residents say they are deeply frustrated with the political chaos and confused about what will happen next and whom to believe.
While the Portuguese word "saudades" expresses a longing for the past, the feeling in Bissau is more akin to a longing for a more prosperous future they know is possible, but each time Bissau-Guineans' raise their hopes, they are dashed by political manoeuvring - often backed by guns.
Along the streets, women are selling the country's number-one cash crop - freshly harvested cashews.
But the presence of armed soldiers is a reminder that things are not normal.
The absence of trusted sources of news has provided good fodder for rumours and innuendo, with people constantly trying to parse what is true and what is not.
Contradictory official communiqués and letters from various sides, about who is the rightful president, are being shared on WhatsApp and Facebook in the country of 1.6 million people.
"We don't know what's going on," said a hotel manager, Aboubacar, as he scrolled through his Facebook feed. He furrowed his brow and frowned as he tried to decide which local blogs to read.
One restaurant owner, who said the chaos was hurting her business, added: "For such a tiny country, it's amazing how much fake news we can produce."
Umaro Cissoko Embaló was announced as the winner of December's election.
The long-time ruling party PAIGC however alleged it was cheated out of victory and insists that Embaló waits for the Supreme Court to rule on its third request to annul the elections. But he refused and has taken the oath of office.
And in the meantime, PAIGC lawmakers, who say that an alliance with smaller parties means they still have a majority in parliament, swore in one of its members as president and insisted their current prime minister stay in office.
However, shortly afterwards PAIGC Cipriano Cassamá stood down, citing fears for his safety.
Fake news fills the vacuum
“The problems in Bissau are structural problems, and the country has never really stabilised politically,” said Gilles Yabi, founder of West African think-tank, Wathi.
“The country has the history of war, fighting for independence from Portugal, so the presence of the military is directly linked to this history, and the role the military played to get independence.”
He added there were other factors at play in the current crisis.
“The main problem is the political class of the country, and the fact that they have been fighting for power for a long time. The current situation is very polarised. Depending on whom you talk to, they will have quite a different version of things.”
There are two competing versions at the moment: While the PAIGC says the elections was rigged, the opposing side, MADEM-G15, says its candidate Embaló won December’s polls and is now rightfully installed at the presidency.
The National Election Commission has repeatedly confirmed that Embaló won the polls with 54 percent of the vote, and at least one minister in his government has publicly accused their opponents of bribing a Supreme Court judge to rule in PAIGC’s favour and stall the confirmation of Embaló’s win.
Both sides say they have proof, but in the vacuum of that proof, residents’ social media feeds are flooded with false news reports of weapons seizures at a political party’s headquarters and politicians hiding out at foreign embassies - events that never happened. Bissau and the cocaine trade To add to the confusion, Guinea-Bissau has for many years been used as a staging post in the trafficking of cocaine from Latin America to Europe.
The PAIGC’s Aristides Gomes, who still says he is the rightful prime minister, has claimed that narco-trafficking is the main factor behind the current political instability.
Experts say drug traffickers can profit from the current political chaos, and there were already reports that one notorious trafficker who had previously fled the country was spotted back in Bissau at a downtown hotel last week.
This report was denied by Ibrahima Jalo, an ally of Embaló, who heads the association of 18 political parties which is not represented in the assembly.
“No, no, no… Drug trafficking? In this country? No. Please. The drug trafficking here in Guinea-Bissau was maybe happening before, but it will never happen again.”
In the past, the military and navy have been heavily linked to the country’s drug trade.
In 2013, US Drug Enforcement Administration arrested the former head of the navy as he was attempting to close a million-dollar cocaine deal going through GuineaBissau.
Trafficking reportedly dropped off in Guinea-Bissau after that, but some experts say the recent few years of political crisis have reopened the corridor.
Amidst the chaos, nearly 1, 000 hooded vultures were killed in a mass poisoning in the east of the country. Some said it was a bad omen for the country.
The birds were bubbling from their beaks in what the Vulture Conservation Foundation says is the worst mass vulture death event in recent memory in the world.
Fighting in the courts, not with guns
Vincent Foucher, a researcher for the French National Centre for Scientific Research, stresses that the latest iteration of the crisis appears at least for now to be more peaceful than some in the past.
“I think it’s quite important to note that the elites have realised that now the competition is fought with and around legal norms. It’s not about killing people - well for now - or coups. Let’s hope it stays that way,” he said.
However, all parties the law is on their side.
“It’s always this thing that in Bissau people bend the law in one sense or another as suits their interests in the position of the moment. – BBC.