NDS1 growth targets, a mountain to climb

THE economy is expected to grow by an average 5 percent over the fiveyear tenure of the National Development Strategy One (NDS1) in order to achieve its goal of transforming the country to an upper middle income status by 2030 and the authorities are confident they will achieve it.

Delivering a public lecture at the National University of Science and Technology in Bulawayo earlier this week, Minister of Finance and Economic Development, Professor Mthuli Ncube, noted that the macro-economic environment is pointing to the attainment of the envisaged target of an upper middle-income society by 2030.

With NDS1 anchored on various pillars ranging from food security, infrastructure development, agriculture, mining and manufacturing, Mthuli says the country has come out of the hoods.

He said; “I am pleased today that I was able to interface with students from higher and tertiary institutions to explain to them our economic transformation journey that is taking place under NDS1 under the New Dispensation. I was able to cover basically the environmental climate in terms of the global economy, African economy and of course our own economy, but also going deeper into the real economy and things that are driving the economy and transformation that we are experiencing, transformation in agriculture, mining, infrastructure and manufacturing sector.’’

Mthuli also highlighted that the use of the local currency has brought a favourable balance of payment, which has also seen locally manufactured goods dominating retail shops.

‘‘I was happy to hear that 70 percent of products in supermarkets are locally manufactured goods. Those are the signs we are making progress in economic transformation and this is a result of value addition.”

Economist, Dr Prosper Chitambara, said the country is on a growth trajectory but the authorities need to be hands-on in order to drive it to the levels they want.

“In light of the recent challenges faced at Kariba Power Station, it is recommended that ZPC comes up with ways of increasing electricity generation from other existing power plants and scale up investment in renewable energy sources.”

This, he said would help the economy to grow at the said average pace as energy is the backbone of any investment or production process.

“If the government wants to subsidise, there should be budgetary support to that effect,” Chitambara said.

Economist, Tinevimbo Shava, said the country is going in the right direction but to say the growth target for these five years will be met is a mirage.

“From the economic scorecard, government has embarked on agriculture transformation through sound financing models resulting in dams like the Bubi-Lupane contributing to food security while on the energy sector, the expansion of the Hwange Unit 7 and 8 is expected to contribute a combined 600 megawatts to the national grid,” Shava said.

He added that, on infrastructure development, government is moving with speed to provide onsite accommodation for students.

“The modernisation of the Beitbridge Border Post to the tune of US$300 million and the establishment of the Manhize Iron and Steel Plant, which is expected to position Zimbabwe as a giant in steel production, are some of the positives achieved under the five year NDS1,” Shava concluded.

Economics lecturer, Professor Ashok Chakravati, said that NDS1 was poised for success as it was built on a firm foundation laid by the previous period of austerity.

Through the NDS1, Chakravarti said the government has been able to release the energy of the private sector to inject much needed capital into the economy and thus stimulate economic activity and growth.

“The first thing to note is that the NDS1 is almost entirely based on domestic resources and it’s based on the concept of self-reliance,” said Chakravati.

“Of course if re-engagement is successful and we get additional resources from the international community that will be positive and it will bring a major boost.

“But the growth rates that have been put in for NDS1 are feasible and achievable, and we believe this is one of the most realistic strategies and development plans since independence,” Chakravati said.

It is a consensus that the country will record growth throughout the NDS1 period but all analysts say the 5 percent growth target is a fallacy as some years have already missed it.