Business Weekly (Zimbabwe)

. . . SVB shockwaves rattle global banks in grip of contagion fears

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Silicon Valley Bank's collapse pressured global bank stocks further on Tuesday as investors fretted over the financial health of some lenders, in spite of assurances from President Joe Biden and

US other policymake­rs.

An indicator of credit risk in the euro zone banking system leapt to its highest since midJuly, as worries about contagion risks from the collapse of two

banks compounded investor

US concerns about the impact on lenders of rising interest rates.

The volatility index, Wall

VIX Street's “fear gauge”, neared six-month highs overnight, although futures pointed to a modestly higher Wall St open on Tuesday, with regional banks

US bouncing in pre-market trading after recent brutal losses.

Banking giants Citi, Wells Fargo and Morgan were also

JP 1 percent — 3 percent higher in the pre-market.

Europe's banking index fell 0,6 percent after posting its biggest percentage loss in more than a year on Monday, although some said banks in the region were less vulnerable.

“A critical difference between the European and systems,

US which will limit the impact across the Atlantic, is that European banks' bond holdings are lower and their deposits more stable," credit rating agency Moody's said in a note.

Still, shares of embattled Credit Suisse fell 4,5 percent after it said customer “outflows stabilized to much lower levels but had not yet reversed” in its 2022 annual report.

And Britain's HSBC, which bought SVB's UK arm on Monday, rescuing a key lender for British technology start-ups, slipped 1,4 percent in its fourth consecutiv­e day of losses.

Asian banking stocks had earlier extended their declines, with Japanese firms hit particular­ly hard as anxiety about systemic risk sparked a wider rout in markets.

Japanese financial institutio­ns have sufficient capital buffers to absorb losses caused by external factors, including risks caused by SVB's collapse, the Bank of Japan said.

Biden's efforts to reassure markets and depositors came after emergency measures to

US shore up banks by giving them access to additional funding failed to dispel investor worries about potential contagion to other lenders worldwide.

“The dramatic collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and widespread market turmoil in the subsequent days is ‘part of the process'of the world tightening financial conditions after years of cheap money,”Morgan Stanley co-president Edward Pick said.

“This is part of the process of the knob being turned to tighten financial conditions to make sure that we are on our way to normalisin­g a higher interest rate world,” Pick said.

“But there might well be surprises, there might well be reactions,”he added on Tuesday.

A furious race to reprice interest rate expectatio­ns also buffeted markets as investors bet the Federal Reserve will

US be reluctant to hike next week.

Traders currently see a 50 percent chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. Early last week, a 25 basis point hike was fully priced in, with a 70 percent chance seen of 50 basis points.

Short-end yields in the euro zone tumbled again as investors bet the European Central Bank would moderate its policy tightening at Thursday's meeting, with chances of a Bank of England hike next week also seen receding.

Antonio Patuelli head of the Italian Banking Associatio­n told Il Corriere della Sera he hoped that in the wake of the

collapse “the will do

SVB ECB more thinking than the already announced decision to raise rates further”.

Yunosuke Ikeda, chief equity strategist at Nomura Securities, said the shift to much less aggressive Fed hike expectatio­ns has also tempered the outlook for an eventual pivot in Japan away from ultra-low interest rates.

The prospect of higher rates had been “the reason investors have been really excited about Japan bank stocks,”Ikeda added.

Analysts say uncertaint­y continues to dog the financial sector, with investors extremely worried about the health of smaller global banks, the prospect of tighter regulation and a preference to protect depositors at the expense of shareholde­rs.

A wave of customers have applied to shift their accounts to large banks such as JPMor

US gan Chase ( JPM. N) and Citigroup (C.N) from smaller lenders after

SVB's collapse last week, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

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