A post-COVID-19 economic revival plan needed
WHEN I was starting my career, I was introduced to the world of emergency preparedness and disaster response, a pathway through which I developed an interest in development studies. There are several critical lessons to learn from that area of study — part of which can be used to evaluate a society's preparedness to deal with both anticipated and unexpected situations and ability to recover and rise again.
I will not get into the details of emergency preparedness and disasters response, but wish to highlight some of the critical phases in the process. When a disaster or an emergency occurs, crisis management taskforces and emergency response teams are constituted to coordinate and respond to the situation. Depending on the scale and magnitude of the crisis, for huge impact situations, there are two types of planning phases that are put in place; the response and the post-crisis phases.
The role of the first phase, often led by the crisis management taskforces, is to strategise and implement a response plan with the objective of stopping the crisis or to mitigate its impact; and to draw lessons for future events. The lifespan of this phase starts from preparedness stage until the end of the response operation. Its effectiveness is measured by its ability to timely respond and mitigate the potential impact of the crisis to the minimum possible. With the current COVID-19 pandemic, this is the stage most countries are grappling with.
This is where the game is lost or won as most countries and institutions tend to get too stuck up in first phase forgetting that there is a future after the crisis. The smoke that rises from the crisis tend to blur the view of the bigger picture as all the resources and attention are invested or diverted into mitigating the impact of the current crisis, when the real victory lies in the ability to rise again after the crisis.
For most African and poor societies, the end of the crisis is marked by endless celebrations and euphoria. By the time they lift their heads up, the other world would be miles ahead in improving the lives of their people. No wonder stories of war victories and independence still make news headlines 40 years after the war and yet the economy is perennially ailing.
Most developed countries tend to be more progressive in their approach. While poor societies are celebrating putting off fire from a burning roof, their western counterparts have already procured material to repair the roof or to rebuild the house. This is because once a crisis of a major magnitude kicks in, the second phase — mostly known as the post-crisis strategic planning is immediately activated. Its role is very clear — to plan for the country for life after the crisis. This process involves assessing the potential damage caused or losses incurred, identifying reparation/recovery opportunities and weaknesses of other countries that can be exploited to revive the domestic economies.
It also entails linking the most affected industries with available opportunities both locally and internationally, and sometimes restructuring the economy completely. This is why Africa is most likely going to be central as most developed economies will scramble once again for affordable raw materials to feed their waning economies.
As the response phase is rolled into action, the second phase will be busy consulting and putting ideas together into a strategic plan and ready to take over economic recovery once the crisis is over. There is no time to rest or celebrate, mainly with the awareness that crises are a huge distraction to the normal functioning of a country. Thus, there are no other options to but recover, lest leaders are faced with a disgruntled, broke and unemployed society.
What are some of the options available for a poor country such as Zimbabwe? The lockdowns have stopped cross-border movements. This means that once the lockdowns are lifted, there is going to be a huge surge in demand for logistic and supply services from neighbouring countries wanting to mend their economies. Zimbabwe situated at the regional intersection of southern Africa road network, stands a good chance of increasing incomes and creating employment from road revenue, if they offer favourable facilitation of those cross-border trucks across the country.
At the onset, logistics and the supply chain will be critical lifelines to economic recovery for neighbouring countries and Zimbabwe is strategically positioned. However, that will not happen naturally. Someone needs to start reaching out and negotiating with all players, including logistics service providers. It is time to make conditions favourable so that passing by Zimbabwe becomes the option of choice.
The global oil industry has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and this has seen oil prices plummet to minus $37/barrel by April 20. For a country struggling to manage its oil supplies, this is another chance to buy bulk supplies and make good use of the underutilised storage facilities across the country so that by the time the lockdowns are lifted, the country can start off with affordable and available energy supply. This is the type of kick-start a perennially ailing economy such as ours needs.
Some countries are using the lockdowns to repair national utilities when demand for supply is lower or at zero. We could have used the last few weeks to repair our national power generators, water plants, fixed some of the roads that require touch-ups and some of the utilities.
As mentioned earlier, access to affordable raw materials and cheap labour is going to be critical to the revival of most economies. Poor countries have a choice to be stupid and accept shoddy economic recovery funds or to demand global market prices for their raw materials seeing that the recession as a result of COVID-19 has somewhat equalised the trading ground.
● Tapiwa Gomo is a development consultant based in Pretoria, South Africa. He writes here in his personal capacity.