We know of today, tomorrow is not for us to say

IT took teams of scientists only a few months a find new drugs against coronavirus. There are only a few diseases still labelled “incurable”. Children should no longer die of contagious diseases. It is merely a problem of our health budget, of suitable and well-equipped staff and logistics. We seem to be in control of our future.

We can predict what our chances of survival are. We can plan and calculate what the needs for food will be in 2300, in 2500 and in 3000, if we get our population statistics right (a big if ever since the British prophet of doom, Malthus, got his predictions so spectacularly wrong 100 years later.)

Climate change was not expected. And yet we knew, it had to come sometime. And now we know what it does to us and other continents. We know of seasons of climate change in the past and we can project it into the future.

We remain with very few absolute mysteries, solutions to old problems offer us a key to new ones. Everything hangs together with everything else.

Astronomers centuries ago could predict the movements of sun, moon, all the planets and stars, however, remote. But, what happens today has not always been predicted, was often not foreseeable.

Who could have foreseen COVID-19 and the pandemic it triggered off? Who foresaw Cyclone Idai? If some had an inkling why did they not warn the rest of us?

COVID-19 was certainly unexpected and could not be forseeen. Suddenly the State, the church, schools of whatever kind, and social and political life were severely disrupted, like an express train suddenly being derailed at high speed. And this happened when nobody expected it. There were rumours that there had been a global flu epidemic in 1918–1921. But, that was such a long time ago, who could take it seriously?

The world population, the leaders, the great industrial managers, the spiritual leaders and professors — who were in a position to tell us in advance: Be warned, be on the lookout, be prepared, take this seriously? We were waylaid by a new kind of virus which seems to be of a particularly nasty disposition. It won’t disappear by itself, or fade away, merely from fatigue or lack of strength. Only keeping the rules and widespread immunisation will hit it on the head and knock it out.

No industrial concern, no state, no research institute, no university could predict a catastrophe was round the corner. But many were in denial when it came.

We like to be fully in control of whatever happens. We do not like sudden surprises. We like to make detailed plans about aims and objectives. There is family planning and birth-control. Now more and more the elderly want to organise their own death. They want to fix the time, the circumstances and the place of their passing on. Death does not happen. You plan it and manage it yourself.

Who would like to live in a country like North Korea, always marching in uniform step with the rest? Where there is nothing unexpected, because everything is pre-planned and foreseeable? Not allowing freedom of thought, or creative activity?

In such a society you do not take risks, you do nothing that did not happen before.

COVID-19 has raided us like a thief at night. After Cyclone Idai we were agreed that we must take precautions now for the next Cyclone. What will we do after COVID-19? From now on we must be ready for any kind of epidemic or even pandemic. That we coped this time, is no guarantee that we will get away with it next time.

But, life is change and variety. The truth is that Life is always brought to an end by death. “All is vanity”. “What now is, has already been. What is to be, already is.” (Ecclesiastes/Qohelet 3: 15) We must always expect the unexpected. If there is calm and peace we can never take it for granted.

For the sake of security we take risks. For the sake of peace we train an army and build up a large arsenal of weapons (even though that may backfire and cause another war).

Because we now know of COVID-19 we must maintain discipline, self-control, staying away from risky areas and avoiding human contact that exposes us to the virus.

A very regular life following a well-known routine — this is the environment we want. But we cannot expect to be protected by it forever. There are potholes, sudden turns and sometimes a deep gap in the road we see too late.

If we were able to avoid risk, uncertainty, surprise or shock, then we fit in this world of cyclones and epidemics, accidents and disasters. Should we not anticipate the dangers that lurk at every corner?

There were people who took incredible risks for the sake of their brothers and sisters. In the Middle Ages there were many epidemics, plagues, and pestilences. Family members and fellow sisters and brothers of religious communities went out of their way to rescue others. They caught the virus and perished.

Taking a risk needs courage. But without it, we will be in stagnant water. Moving out of a familiar place and into a new and unwonted one, keeps the mind alive and keeps us on our toes.

We have our origin in the Creator and are creative ourselves. Education challenges us with new ideas. Even ancient ideas still have their uses. Socrates in ancient Greece taught his young scholars how to conduct dialogue and discover the world through the lens of their minds.

Our Creator gave us freedom: freedom of choice, freedom of self-determination, of imagination and of getting to know our own creative potential.

This makes for variety and gives us the freedom of choosing what our time and situation requires of us.