Zim COVID-19 herd immunity by year-end: A far-fetched dream

THERE has been a steady growth in Covid-19 vaccination across the country. By October 31, 2021, the country had vaccinated over three million people against the pandemic.

However, the number of people vaccinated still fall short of the set target of 60% herd immunity by year-end. By its own admission, government through the Health ministry revealed that the COVID-19 vaccination rollout and deployment programme had, as at October 31, 2021, reached a national coverage of 38% of the targeted population. The period between October 31 and December 31 is realistically not enough to vaccinate the remaining 62% given that the vaccination rate of 38% was attained between March and October.

As indicated above, government took seven months to vaccinate 38% of the targeted herd immunity population. It follows that the attainment of herd immunity now requires government to vaccinate the remaining 62% in two months. It is apparent government is faced with a huge mountain to climb considering the rate at which the COVID-19 vaccination is moving.

Despite the above, government still maintains that COVID-19 herd immunity will be achieved within the set timeframe. On November 2, 2021, Information minister Monica Mutsvangwa said: “The government of Zimbabwe, through the Ministry of Health and Child Care is determined that Zimbabwe achieves herd immunity by end of December 2021.”

However, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. The attainment of the COVID-19 herd immunity is a farfetched dream. This is despite mandatory vaccination of civil servants that has so far managed to have 99% of public sector workers vaccinated against COVID-19.

During a post-Cabinet briefing on November 16, 2021, Mutsvangwa told the nation that level 2 lockdown had been extended by an additional two weeks to “promote the heightened vaccination uptake in order to protect the nation against a possible fourth wave of the pandemic”. One of the measures of Level 2 lockdown includes banning public gatherings of more than 100 people.

Of concern is non-adherence to this measure by the government itself which may trigger another COVID-19 wave, the fourth wave.

Of late, the ruling Zanu PF party has been mobilising its supporters beyond the required or stipulated number of people at public gatherings under COVID-19 level 2 lockdown measures and regulations.

The attainment of COVID-19 herd immunity in the country is proving to be an pipe dream given that the country is now less than a month away from the end of the year and only 3,73 million people have been vaccinated against a target of 10 million.

Recommendations

Government should:

• Develop a clear plan on how it is going to utilise the time between now and end of 2021 to vaccinate the population in order to reach herd immunity.

• Lead by example in religiously observing and following COVID-19 rules and regulations stipulated under level 2 lockdown.

• Find a long-lasting solution to healthcare personnel remuneration.

• Endeavour to achieve its COVID-19 vaccination set targets (for example, 60% herd immunity by end of 2021).

• Boost its advocacy role on the need to ensure access to healthcare services across rural areas in Zimbabwe.

• Report on COVID-19 vaccination progress in relation to the herd immunity target.