A Trumpian Peace Deal in Libya?

There is good reason for the Trump administration to pay attention to Libya sooner rather than later, as the conflict is evolving in ways that threaten US interests.

SURPRISING as it may be stateside, US President-elect Donald Trump is wildly popular in Libya. Since 2014, the civil war in Libya has been in a stalemate as rival factions, including the UN- backed Government of National Accord ( GNA) in Tripoli and the House of Representatives in Tobruk, each backed by an assortment of militias, fight for control.

In 2015, things looked particularly dire in Libya; some cities have fallen entirely under jihadi control and most of the country’s oil terminals had been taken off-line.

But since mid-2016, there have been some positive developments too: Libya’s oil production is rebounding and the Islamic State ( ISIS) has been evicted from Sirte, which was its largest patch of territory outside of Iraq and Syria.

But the political roadblocks to reconciliation remain.

A new war is brewing in Libya’s south and the GNA is on the verge of collapse. On January 2, its deputy prime minister, Musa al-Koni, resigned live on Libyan television.

The next day, the Libyan National Army ( LNA), which is aligned with the House of Representatives in Tobruk, bombed a civilian aircraft in Jufra airbase that was transporting senior officers from Misrata, which is home to militias that support the UN- backed government.

This is a dangerous escalation and is likely to prompt extensive counter attacks.

The moment is truly ripe for alternative mediation efforts-outside of the existing UN framework.

For the last few months, the LNA and forces aligned with it have finally gained control of the oil fields, pipelines, and terminals, which are needed for Libya to pump its way to something approaching financial solvency.

These developments are wildly popular even among Libyans opposed to the LNA and the House of Representatives.

Faced with an east consolidating around the LNA, the western factions, including the Misratans, have an incentive to come to the table now before their position degrades further.

The LNA, on the other hand, can now pump oil via its behind-the-scenes deal with the National Oil Corporation and thus, has limited incentive to push a bloody fight for Tripoli if negotiations are a possibility.

Trump should seize the opportunity as he has the potential to shift the dynamic in previously unimaginable ways.

At least initially, Trump will find it fairly easy to engage a wide range of local actors.

Supporters of Libya’s most powerful military figure, Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar — who heads the LNA and is backed by both Russia and Egypt — believe that Trump will favour them as part of his new administration’s geostrategic realignment toward Russia.

Conversely, opponents of Haftar, who are tired of the stagnant negotiations with the UN- backed unity government, believe that Trump may breathe fresh life into the talks or else pursue more effective alternatives to building a functioning government, eradicate what remains of ISIS, and find new ways to jump-start the Libyan economy.

In short, at least on the Libyan streets, Trump comes into office far more popular than a President-elect Hillary Clinton would have been.

The former Secretary of State’s emissaries are associated with the status quo and with the Misratan faction. Furthermore, few areas of the world were more neglected during President Barack Obama’s second term than Libya.

Yes, Washington was instrumental in coordinating the airstrikes that ousted ISIS from its stronghold in Sirte.

But the United States has failed to exert leadership over the political and economic aspects of Libya’s transition.

There is good reason for the Trump administration to pay attention to Libya sooner rather than later, as the conflict is evolving in ways that threaten US interests.

Neighbouring States such as Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia, are facing contagion from Libya’s ongoing civil war, increasing the chance that what remains of ISIS’ faction in Libya will flee and entrench itself elsewhere in the Maghreb.

Russia is providing ever more political support to Haftar and could easily outflank Western policymakers by recognising him and his allies in the House of Representatives as Libya’s legitimate government.

This could create another frozen conflict or else end with a Russian-backed regime over all of Libya.

Although Trump appears capable of making a broad geo-strategic deal with Russia, there is no reason to think he wants to give Moscow more leverage before such a deal is made.

But Washington still has leverage — if it chooses to use it.

Only the United States can offer full entry into the global economy and give international legitimacy to the various Libyan factions.

Russia and its ally, Egypt, would only generate dependency and further marginalisation.

Full article on www.herald.co.zw