Why the MDC Alliance will lose

THE main opposition political party, the MDC Alliance, has committed a series of serious mistakes that have created conditions necessary and sufficient to ensure its own electoral defeat. Some causal factors have just been a resultant of historical accidents or just fate.

Mugabe resignation

The resignation of Mr Mugabe has been a blow to MDC because as a party it was created to remove Mr Mugabe, it channelled all its effort for almost 20 years in giving reasons both real and fake on why “Mugabe must go”. But it also preferred him because boxing a 94-year-old who had ruled for 37 years in the ring of elections was a better option than facing a healthy crocodile gang member. Out there preparing to box Mosquito, the MDC Alliance had to realise on the eve of the match that Ali is their new opponent.

Morgan Tsvangira’s death

Morgan Tsvangirai was the best candidate that the MDC Alliance could ever field in an election. He became a brand that was created and trained for almost 20 years with a specific objective of running in a presidential race. However, by God’s will, the best candidate was called to better place only five months before the race.

Therefore, anyone that was to replace him was a second choice and a second choice cannot be expected to outperform the “best choice”. Yet even the best records by the “best choice” were not sufficient to win the 2013 race.

ED reformation

President ED Mnangagwa managed to reform both the party and State by increasing the democratic space, prioritising the economy over politics, embarking on a re-engagement initiative and combating corruption. These reforms have increased his popularity above his predecessor as he has managed to address genuine issues raised by opposition voices. It is always hard to fight a President who is not hated by the masses.

Chamisa palace coup

Nothing has been more disastrous to the MDC than the rise of Mr Chamisa and the catastrophic consequences that could have been avoided. The palace coup conducted by the national executive council either motivated by tribalism or male chauvinism brought about not only a split, but legitimacy and legal battles for the MDC Alliance, but also a spirited hatred and rejection by victims of the coup. By human nature, hatred is always the purest of sustainable malicious motives.

The Western crossover

After the rise of ED and the gospel of re-engagement, the West began to change its approach towards the State.

Britain has welcomed the re-engagement initiatives, while France has been calling for the removal of sanctions.

This crossover by Western states has reflected their endorsement of the current political order, abandoning its traditional MDC partners

Internal traitors and cowards

MDC is now full of traitors and cowards, men who just want to ride the name and increase their political profile as an effort to get a piece of the old jobs they lost after the GNU. MDC is being used by lawyer politicians as a route to access State resources as they intend to use the alliance as a bargaining chip with the usual winners. It is now a means to an end. Cowards come in the form of top party officials whose daughters have obtained top post in rival splinter groups. Surely, trust runs low under such circumstances.

Weak alliance partners

Surely, some partners within the MDC Alliance are not worth it, what can Transform Zimbabwe really add or PDP? These alliance partners are free-loaders who will cost seats and votes. The alliance could have been renegotiated and realigned to suit new political realities, new power brokers who found themselves in the opposition should have been accommodated to substitute weak partners.

Matabeleland loss

By their own volition, the MDC lost its Matabeleland bloc of votes by firing serious power brokers like Dr Thokozani Khupe. By so doing they proved to be tribalist.

This has cemented the rise of MRP and Dabengwa, who will surely divide votes which could have been secured only if Dr Khupe had been handled better.

Corruption

The MDC-run councils and councillors have proven to be corrupt, tarnishing its pretence and propaganda as the party of excellence. The MDC proved itself to be no better. If they could not be trusted with a simple council, what more about the State?

Movement for Dictatorial Change

The MDC has proven itself to be a dictatorial party, not only by destroying a viable third alternative thereby limiting the electorate choices and forcing the State into a two-party dominant state through the formation of the MDC Alliance, they have also imposed candidates and distributed constituencies without the approval or even the consent of the people. This top down approach is synonymous with totalitarian and authoritarian institutions.

Overconfidence

Truly, the MDC Alliance candidate is a young man and the majority of the 2018 electorate is youth. This generational affinity has misled the opposition into believing that they monopolise the youth vote, forgetting that the bulk of these youths are scattered in the ruling party’s stronghold, the countryside.

Decline of the ZCTU

The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), the critical pillar of the MDC Alliance has been losing its power gradually over the years as industries have been closing and the number of employees declining. As a result, its power and influence has been limited as the number of the workforce they represent has been on the decline.

Containment of religious institutions

Religious institutions such as the Catholic Church, Prophetic Healing and Deliverance (PHD),United Family International Church (UFIC) and various apostles denominations have remained contained within the walls of their denominations or in some cases refused to play ball for the MDC Alliance. Fluctuating between impartiality and sidelining the MDC Alliance, Chamisa lost critical pillar of support within the religious institutions.

Lack of private business support

The local business enterprises, which have been traditional supporters of the opposition have also abandoned the MDC, opting to work with the ruling party. This has been beneficial to the business sector as they are the main profiteers from protectionist policies such as the S64.

Money hustlers

The fact that the then MDC VP Khupe confessed that “we are into politics to get money” and that senior opposition leaders became the line of defence of fallen out-of-grace politicians who were facing serious allegations of corruption and abuse of public office became proof to the public that the MDC is just an unprincipled self-serving institution in search of profits.

Lack of regional allies

The opposition also lacked regional allies within Sadc to assist them to assume power. As the ruling party has long relations with ANC, Swapo and CCP, the opposition still is failing to maintain a regional balance of coordination.

Failure to penetrate the rural areas

The MDC never constructed serious party structures in rural areas in comparison to its main opponents, yet rural areas constitute 70 percent of the population. Rural contact has only been limited through rallies and this is insufficient in accessing 70 percent of the total population which is scattered over a huge territory.

The advantage of incumbency

History of Sadc elections has always reflected that it is difficult, but not impossible to defeat the incumbent.

Zimbabwe’s own history is reflective of this, in all eight post colonial elections, the incumbent has never been defeated.