The time to prepare for peaceful elections is now

It seems clear in retrospect that the days of the autocrats and one-party regimes were numbered following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

The change in the international order meant that liberal democracy became the default arrangement for most countries, leading to the optimism of the “Third Wave” of democracy, and the new emphasis on elections and alternations in power, even in Africa.

In fact, there was an enormous shift in Africa towards multi-party democracy, and the holding of regular elections, but it also became clear that elections were no panacea: too many countries realised that elections could be a very low bar for maintaining international credibility.

Whether described as living under “competitive authoritarianism”, “dominant power politics”, or even a “predatory state”, the ruling party, Zanu PF, has remained in power since 1980, confounding all logic and political science theory.

The party won every election during the 1990s, mostly against very weak opposition, but the stakes rose much higher with the emergence of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and elections became hugely competitive, and extremely violent.

In fact, it is evident that Zimbabwe is the most violent country in Sadc when it comes to elections.

From 2000 onwards, the passing grade, usually accorded to Zimbabwe for its elections, changed to a fail, and the combination of violent and flawed elections (together with the problems about property rights that followed the fast-track land reform programme), led to Zimbabwe being placed under restrictive conditions by the European Union, and both restrictive conditions and sanctions by the United States.

Thus, the relationship between organised violence and torture (OVT) and elections became the new focus for human rights monitoring; not exclusively so, as the challenges to Zanu PF’s hegemonic power grew with every passing year, both through elections, but also through the growing discontent of the citizenry for its very poor governance. Nonetheless, it was during elections, both in the lead-up and the aftermath of elections, that the greatest frequency of OVT was recorded.

It is also worth pointing out that elections prior to 2000 were also marked by significant political violence, but not on the scale seen subsequent to 2000.

Elections since 2000 have been marked also by accusations of electoral irregularities and rigging, and there is very large literature on all these elections.

Whilst rigging and fraud are obviously very serious issues, here we will concentrate on the aspects of all these elections in which OVT was documented.

Since 2000, every election has been violent, documented by both local human rights groups as well as those from the international arena

Zimbabwe has held five elections and two referendums since 2000, and not all have been violent, especially the referendums.

Zimbabwean human rights organisations have an enviable record in documenting human rights abuses and political violence as Zimbabwean human rights organisations contribute over 70% of all reports on violence in comparison to other countries in Sadc, such as Angola, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa, where most reporting on violent events is produced by the media.

Of course, reports on OVT are only a small percentage of the total number of reports on OVT generally, about 20%.

This is not to minimise the importance of reports on OVT and elections, but merely to point out that OVT in Zimbabwe is confined not just to elections.

In the light of this extremely disturbing history about the prevalence of OVT during elections, it is clear that serious steps must be taken to prevent a recurrence in 2023.

As we have pointed out, OVT can reach the threshold of crimes against humanity, and it is evident that OVT reaches this threshold when the probability of the ruling party losing political power is very high, especially over the hold on the presidency.

Here it is relevant that the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, scraped through in 2018 by the narrowest of margins.

Furthermore, and notwithstanding the Covid crisis, the general populace has seen a significant decline in their well-being, a condition for which they may well hold the current government responsible, and not likely to support it again in a poll.

These are the conditions that increase the probability of the return of OVT, a probability reflected in the warlike rhetoric of Zanu PF supporters

Accordingly, we make a number of recommendations in order to forestall the occurrence of OVT in the forthcoming elections.

To the government of Zimbabwe:

It is critical that the pre-election period before 2023 is characterised by a total absence of hate speech, especially from members of the government, and that all persons making such statements are charged under Sections 37(1) (c) and 42(2) of the Criminal Code;

There must be no deployment of members of the Zimbabwe National Army into the civilian space outside of conditions that approximate a state of public emergency, as indicated in Section 113 of the constitution, and, if deployed, the provisions of Section 214 of the constitution be strictly adhered to with full public disclosure; and

It is especially important that all cases of public violence, whether by government agents or civilians, be investigated promptly and charges brought expeditiously.

Research and Advocacy Unit