Our best Christmas yet

CHRISTMAS this year has many pluses and, except for Covid-19, will be about the best Christmas for many so far in the 21st century. The economy is now growing, fast, as the economic reforms of the Second Republic take effect with most of the temporary slowdowns resulting from the reversion to Level Four lockdowns during some waves of Covid-19 having been overcome.

This means that most in the formal sector, with the exception of the hospitality businesses, are doing well, have been able to maintain pay levels at above the rate of inflation and have been able to pay bonuses.

The informal sectors and the self-employed have largely been able to ride on this wave of growing prosperity, since they rely on the formally employed to buy a lot of the things they make and the things they sell.

Civil servants are now a special favoured group, not only getting a decent pay increase recently, but a full bonus paid promptly with all for most and a good slice for the top levels being paid in foreign currency, making them the kings when it comes to being a customer.

The reforms in foreign currency availability for the productive sectors and for priority imports, plus the sterling work done by our farmers as they build from the input programmes, mean that our shop shelves are fully stocked. Shortages of this and that product that have caused problems for so many past Christmases are simply not there. This is what happens when factory managers are able to use most of their capacity; they make enough stuff.

That ready availability of everything means that, for once, pricing is stable. Most of the locally produced and locally grown goods have already been made and grown and prices set.

While retailers, large and small, will be applying their mark ups, there can be no gouging over prices by taking advantage of shortages. In fact some major retailers of consumer goods are having to offer discounts and special offers to sell off what they have ordered.

The weather is co-operating. After a modest start to the rains, followed that longish dry spell, the main rains now appear to be falling.

Climate change appears to be generating a later start and earlier end to rain seasons, but farmers backed by the seed houses seem to be able to cope by choosing intelligently the correct seed varieties that produce decent harvests with shorter seasons.

Again the Government and a slice of private industry have managed between them to ensure that the inputs were ready in the right quantities and on time. We are not hearing about shortages of fertiliser or seed, although self-financing farmers have pulled out the hymn book about pricing.

Even the police detectives have brought a good slice of good news by wrapping up several robbery gangs, with a good percentage or our worst criminal elements spending Christmas in the remand cells or starting their long jail terms.

That spurt in robberies fuelled by growing prosperity is diminishing as a result.

This does not mean we can totally relax and wander around with wads of cash. But it is one of those hopeful signs that things are getting better, not worse, and perhaps we should give a thought to the sterling work going to be done over Christmas by all those medical staff, police and other essential workers who will be lucky to get a few hours off on Christmas Day to be with their families.

So the darkest cloud this Christmas is a second year of Covid-19. Most of us remember what happened last year when we were all so complacent that we took zero precautions as we enjoyed ourselves and then suffered in January, when Covid19 brought a new and more direct meaning to the term “January disease”.

This year we are already in the worst wave, when we look at the infection rates, that we have seen so far with the Omicron variant dominating although with plenty of Delta variant still active. It appears though that a lot of people have decided to be more serious, with infection rates now falling although still worse than in previous spikes.

But a falling infection rate suggests strongly that most of us are doing what our medical advisors, and the global medical community through the World Health Organisation, have been pressing us to do. Masks are being properly worn again, which can halve the risk or better, and sanitising and social distancing are now semi-automatic.

We need to keep that up. We also need to remember that while Christmas is a time for family reunion, that we should limit ourselves to families and, at a push, the odd neighbour we know well. Big parties are breeders of the virus as well as being banned.

If we want a few drinks to relax, fair enough, but we can drink at home in relative safety. We can party again when Covid-19 is defeated.

That should also help in combating the other Christmas tragedy, the accident rate. If we are not driving around half drunk, or driving to and from parties, we are not killing anyone.

Many families, with the near ban on travel as Omicrom added itself to the fourth wave hitting some parts of the world, will not be reuniting this year. But fortunately, even with the cost of Zimbabwean data, it is possible for a family to unite virtually for a small fraction of the cost of a single airfare, and so we are not deprived.

And so as we relax and enjoy Christmas this year we should count our blessings, which are at last growing, and maintain our guard against Covid-19 and against death on our roads so we minimise the risk of personal tragedies.

Life is never perfect, but at least this year it is better than last year, and that was better than the year before.