Are cyclones another pandemic?
COVID-19 is not the only calamity of many names confronting Zimbabwe and Southern Africa.
Despite its many variants, which have become synonymous with the ongoing global pandemic, there is another threat to lives with a knack for multiplicity — cyclones.
Since Idai devastated the region in 2019, leaving more than 1 000 dead and hundreds of thousands homeless, these tropical storms have become an annual occurrence.
In fact, in years to come, it is becoming a grim reality that Southern Africa will have to deal with the destructive phenomenon.
This year alone, two months into the year, there has been Cyclone Ana and Cyclone Batsirai, collectively taking about 150 lives and leaving 280 000 people homeless.
In Zimbabwe, Tropical Cyclone Ana has affected around 3 000 families and agricultural produce running into hundreds of thousands.
Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry Deputy Minister Barbra Rwodzi, at a donation ceremony in Harare last week, said 1 557 houses were partially destroyed, while 50 schools were left in need of repair.
Despite the damage, which is by no means little, those who have lived through previous tropical storms such as Cyclone Eline and Cyclone Idai are relieved that the impact was relatively modest. The danger has, however, not cleared as authorities predict more cyclones within the remaining two or so months of the rainy season.
Chairperson of the Cabinet Committee on Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Management, who is also the Local Government and Public Works Minister July Moyo said there are projections that in the two or so months, SADC and by extension Zimbabwe, will experience six cyclones.
“By the grace of God, for now, Cyclone Batsirai is decimating and has not damaged us as Tropical Depression Ana has done. However, according to the Meteorological Services Department, there is a projection of six more cyclones during the remainder of the current rainy season,” said Minister Moyo.
The now annual occurrence of cyclones, which in the past were separated by as much as 10 years, are a reminder that Southern Africa is disproportionately affected by effects of global warming. Professor Desmond Manatsa, who holds a PhD in Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, said the regular cyclones SADC is experiencing are likely to be sustained due to rising temperatures.
“Tropical Cyclones derive their energy from evaporated water in the warm tropical ocean. But the warmest region in this ocean causes low pressure which forces winds to spiral towards its centre. This accumulated air is forced to rise, taking with it the evaporated water which then condenses and forms thick clouds from where heavy rain falls.
“The rushing wind towards the centre is responsible for the high wind speeds observed in a tropical cyclone,” said Professor Manatsa.
Two hazardous elements which usually emerge in the advent of cyclones, are copious rains and high wind speeds, which usually bear flood potential.
The earth’s temperatures are rising, last year alone there was an increase of 1.51 degrees Fahrenheit (0.84 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C). For 45 years, since 1977, there has been a consistent increase in temperatures although the years 2013 to 2021 are considered to be among the warmest periods recorded.
“The warmer the ocean the more intense and bigger the developing cyclone and the greater the potential damage it can cause. Tropical Cyclones that affect Zimbabwe develop in the South West Indian Ocean where they are steered westwards towards south eastern Africa having passed through Madagascar and some Islands in the ocean,” said Professor Manatsa.
He said Zimbabwe sometimes bears a lesser brunt than its neighbours by virtue of being landlocked.
“Cyclones gradually lose their strength when evaporation is reduced which is the source of energy that drives them. This is achieved in two ways, either when they move over land where evaporating water is not as abundant as in the ocean and when they move southwards out of the tropics where cooler temperatures do not allow substantial evaporation,” Professor Manatsa said.
He,however, said the possibility of recurring cyclones should not be a cause for panic, as they too can be lived with. Some countries in the region have learnt to plan around their occurrence and minimise damage.
“Mauritius is a typical example of an African country which managed to coexist with tropical cyclones with minimum infliction despite the fact that the island lies in the path of most cyclones which develop in the South West Indian Ocean. This island is directly hit during every tropical cyclone season by more than four cyclones whose intensities are far greater than those which have hit Zimbabwe in the past. When hit this country rarely posts more than three causalities with almost zero damage to infrastructure,” he said.
The Government is aware that a long-term solution to the problem is needed.
Dr Prosper Matondi, the Chief of Climate in Government said the science around cyclones is pointing to a concerning future, leaving little room for laxity in the national response.
“The frequency of cyclones has been predicted to remain the same as today, but the intensity and destructive nature will increase. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the main source of research information,” said Dr Matondi.
Zimbabwe is finalising a policy, which will be a template to respond to effects of climate change, especially cyclones.
“Long-term plans to mitigate the effects of these cyclones will be embedded in the National Adaptation Plan. The National Adaptation Planning process currently ongoing is collecting and collating information for development of the NAP that will guide climate change interventions and future resilience building including to respond to future cyclone related disasters,” said Dr Matondi.
There are places which have been continuously affected by cyclones in recent times like the Eastern Highlands, due to its proximity to Mozambique. However, there are not yet plans to move communities from what at face value appears to be the line of danger.
“Cyclone path is not static and depends on the prevailing synoptic weather conditions. Some cyclones affect southern Zimbabwe, others affect central Zimbabwe and some northern regions. Under cyclone situations, there is no place considered safe, as the track can change from time to time, season to season. Where you shift people to may be hit next season. Temporary relocation of people during times of need is more feasible,” said Dr Matondi.
He said there is no need for panic, as the Department of Civil Protection is up to the task of reacting to potentially calamitous events.
Infrastructure remodelling ranks high among the long-term solutions being suggested.
“There are several lessons which Zimbabwe can draw from other countries in our cyclone region. Infrastructure standards is one area which we can learn from Mauritius which has flat concrete roofs and an advanced early warning system and education on how to act during these cyclones,” said Dr Matondi.
He is optimistic that once the Climate Change Bill comes into force, there will be a more coherent legislature on how Climate Change mitigation can become a responsibility of every individual and institution in the country.
SADC in 2007 had the foresight of such eventualities when it established a disaster management structure.